Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 171104
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
704 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Persistent upper level ridging will continue to be the dominant
synoptic influence, allowing for the warm and dry conditions to
prevail across South Florida. As the wind direction shifts to
the south, well see a subtle increase in temperature over the
period.

Today, temperatures could rise a few degrees compared to
recent days, hitting mid 80s in the metropolitan coastal cities,
and nearing 90 in the interior parts of Southwest Florida. An
isolated shower or two is not out of the question, though
generally unlikely to round out the weekend.

Monday will feature an evolving regime, characterized by a
distinct frontal boundary sweeping southward across the
Florida peninsula. While the temperatures contrast is rather
meager, the involvement of this boundary may be just enough to
initiate a round of showers and thunderstorms on Monday.
Currently, the Lake Okeechobee area is forecasted to have the
highest chance of experiencing shower and thunderstorm activity,
though the Atlantic and Gulf coastlines may also witness
isolated to scattered showers and storms during this period due
to increased moisture and instability at lower levels. A strong
thunderstorm during Monday afternoon is not out of the question,
particularly across northernmost locations of the CWFA where the
best dynamics reside.

Record high afternoon temperatures are not out of the question
Monday as well, though this will be dependent on when the warm air
advection phases with the diurnal cycle, as well as the
prevalence of cloud coverage. Nevertheless, much of South Florida
can expect afternoon high temperatures to reach the upper 80s to
even slightly more than 90 degrees in some locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Following the fronts passage across the Florida peninsula late
Monday night, high pressure from the southeast United States will
start to establish itself, introducing a cooler and drier air mass
into the area by Tuesday. Expect high temperatures on Tuesday to
vary, ranging from the mid-70s in the Lake Okeechobee area to the
lower 80s in the southern regions. This cooler weather is
projected to persist through the end of the work week, with
Wednesday and Thursdays high temperatures staying in the upper 70s
for eastern coastal cities and the lower 80s for the interior
parts of Southwest Florida. Mostly dry and temperate conditions
can be expected through this period, with little to no land-based
weather hazards expected.

An interesting evolution in the synoptic pattern appears to
evolve by Thursday and into the end of the week. Presently, long
range model solutions are parsing the southward descent of a
robust H500 short-wave trough into the sub-tropical latitudes. The
advection of this feature will yield differential cyclonic
vorticity advection aloft along with warm advection within the
boundary layer, possibly posing a ripe environment for severe
weather. However, given that the occurrence of this event is
further out in the long-term forecast period, will reserve
specific spatial/temporal details for later in the period as this
system evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. A
few showers and maybe even a thunderstorm can`t be ruled out near
PBI/FXE/FLL late this afternoon but confidence is not high enough
to include in TAFs at the moment. Light and variable winds early
this morning will become prevailing SSW by mid-morning, with a
shift to the SSE possible this afternoon at the east coast
terminals.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Moderate south to southeasterly winds will continue today across
both the Gulf and Atlantic waters, with seas generally no greater
than 2-3 feet. A gradually southwesterly wind shift will be
realized Monday ahead of an approaching frontal boundary, Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible Monday, particularly for the
northern waters and Lake Okeechobee. As the frontal boundary
passes through the region Tuesday, winds will increase out of the
north. This may lead to cautionary or even hazardous marine
conditions across the local waters for a short period on Tuesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Conditions over the Atlantic beaches may become hazardous on
Tuesday with a frontal passage across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            86  74  90  66 /  10   0  20  10
West Kendall     88  71  90  64 /  10   0  20  10
Opa-Locka        88  72  90  65 /  10  10  20  10
Homestead        86  73  90  66 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  86  73  89  64 /  10  10  20  10
N Ft Lauderdale  86  73  90  64 /  20  10  30  10
Pembroke Pines   88  72  90  64 /  10  10  20  10
West Palm Beach  87  70  88  61 /  30  20  40  10
Boca Raton       87  71  90  63 /  20  10  30  10
Naples           83  71  82  60 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRB
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...Carr


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