Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 160727
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
327 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

To start the weekend, the area will be under the influence of a
dominant high-pressure ridge. At the surface level, this extensive
high-pressure zone will persistently move eastward toward the
Atlantic Ocean. This movement will cause the southeast winds near
the surface to gradually shift, becoming more southward.

Due to continued downward air movement over South Florida, the
region will keep experiencing dry conditions today. As the wind
direction shifts to the south, well see a gradual increase in
temperature over the period. Mid-level ridging will subtlety
weaken on Sunday, but overall dry and warm conditions will
continue.

Temperatures could rise a few degrees today compared to recent
days, hitting mid 80s in the eastern coastal cities, and nearing
90 in the interior parts of Southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

On Monday, a surface front that has come to a halt over the Gulf
extending down towards South Florida is expected to heighten the
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms by Monday afternoon. The
primary impacts to consider are lightning and locally elevated
wind gusts, while a stronger storm or two cannot be ruled out at
this time. Currently, the Lake Okeechobee area is forecasted to
have the highest chance of experiencing significant weather
activity, though the Atlantic and Gulf coastlines may also witness
isolated to scattered showers and storms during this period due
to increased moisture and instability at lower levels. Ahead of
this front, Sunday and Monday are anticipated to be warm, with
south to southwest winds bringing moist air into the region,
pushing afternoon high temperatures into the upper 80s for the
eastern coastal cities and lower 90s for the interior areas of
Southwest Florida.

Following the front`s passage across the Florida peninsula late
Monday night, high pressure from the southeast United States will
start to establish itself, introducing a cooler and drier air mass
into the area by Tuesday. Expect high temperatures on Tuesday to
vary, ranging from the mid-70s in the Lake Okeechobee area to the
lower 80s in the southern regions. This cooler weather is
projected to persist through the end of the work week, with
Wednesday and Thursday`s high temperatures staying in the upper
70s for eastern coastal cities and the lower 80s for the interior
parts of Southwest Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

VFR prevails during the next 24 hours at all terminals. Light winds
will become southerly after 15Z, except for a Gulf breeze over
APF. Some Atlantic terminals may experience brief afternoon periods
of SE flow as the east coast sea breeze moves inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

The pattern of moderate winds flowing from the east to southeast
will persist over the Atlantic through the weeks end. Similarly,
the Gulf of Mexico will experience a consistent, gentle to
moderate wind flow from the east to southeast during this period.

For the weekend approaches, the wind direction across all nearby
waters will shift, turning more southerly due to a frontal
boundary stalling to the north. Sea conditions in the Atlantic are
expected to stay at 3 feet or lower through the weekend, while
the Gulf will see sea levels at 2 feet or lower.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            85  72  86  74 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     88  70  88  71 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        88  72  88  72 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        86  72  86  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  85  72  85  73 /   0   0  10   0
N Ft Lauderdale  85  72  87  73 /   0   0  10   0
Pembroke Pines   88  72  88  72 /   0   0  10   0
West Palm Beach  86  70  87  70 /   0   0  10  10
Boca Raton       86  71  88  72 /   0   0  10  10
Naples           83  70  84  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE....SB
AVIATION...17


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