Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 151046
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
646 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

A rather strong mid level ridge will remain parked over the
region for today and into the first part of the weekend. At the
surface, a large area of high pressure will continue to slowly
push eastward in the Atlantic. This eastward shift will allow for
the surface winds to gradually veer and become southeasterly today
and then more southerly heading into Saturday. With strong
subsidence continuing over South Florida, the dry conditions will
remain in place today as well as Saturday. As the winds become
more southerly, a moderating trend in temperatures will continue
heading into the weekend. Highs today will climb into the lower
80s across the east coast metro areas and into the upper 80s
across interior portions of Southwest Florida. Highs on Saturday
could rise into the mid 80s across the east coast metro areas to
around 90 across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

With light southerly flow in place on Saturday night into Sunday
morning, there will be enough lower level moisture at the surface
to support patchy fog development over the interior and west coast
during this time frame. Any fog that does develop will lift
shortly after sunrise on Sunday morning. The mid level ridge will
begin to break down on Sunday as a deepening mid level trough
dives down across the eastern seaboard from the northwest. At the
surface, broad cyclogenesis may try to develop along a stalled out
frontal boundary over the Gulf Coast states in response to a mid
level impulse quickly moving eastward through the Deep South. This
disturbance will begin to drag the stalled out frontal boundary
farther to the south on Sunday night into Monday. Out ahead of
this front, southerly flow on Sunday will gradually become
southwesterly on Monday and will increase as the pressure gradient
tightens due to the front moves closer to the region. While most
areas will remain dry on Sunday, deeper layer moisture advection
will begin to take place out ahead of the front on Monday. With
the frontal boundary pushing closer to the area as the day
progresses, the chances of showers will increase especially across
the Lake Okeechobee region on Monday afternoon. While the exact
details still remain uncertain, with the front approaching during
peak diurnal heating, there should be enough instability and lift
to support a chance of thunderstorms close to the front over the
Lake Okeechobee region. High temperatures out ahead of the front
on Sunday and Monday will be warm as they will rise into the upper
80s across the east coast metro areas and into the lower 90s
across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

The latest model guidance is in good agreement with passing the
frontal boundary through South Florida on Monday night. Behind the
front, high pressure centered to the northwest will gradually push
into the region. This will allow for a drier and cooler air mass
to push into the area for Tuesday and heading into the middle of
the week. High temperatures on Tuesday will generally range from
the mid 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the lower 80s
across the southern areas. High temperatures on Wednesday will
remain in the upper 70s across the east coast metro areas to the
lower 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle. Winds ESE
gradually becoming SE around 10 KT, with gusts up to 15-20KT,
after 15Z. Gulf breeze may allow for SW wind shift near/over KAPF
in the early afternoon. Light and variable tonight beginning
02-04Z for most TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

A moderate southeasterly wind flow will continue across the local
waters today before gradually becoming southerly for Saturday and
Sunday. As a frontal boundary moves towards the region, these
winds will become southwesterly and increase in magnitude heading
into Monday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase on
Monday afternoon especially across the Atlantic waters. Behind
the front, northerly winds and seas will increase on Tuesday
especially across the Atlantic waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

As onshore flow continues, there will be a high risk of rip
currents across the Atlantic Coast beaches through this evening.
As winds become more southerly over the weekend, the rip current
risk will gradually diminish during this time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            82  72  85  72 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     84  68  87  68 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        85  70  87  70 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        83  70  86  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  81  71  85  71 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  81  71  85  71 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   85  70  87  70 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  81  68  86  69 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       82  69  86  70 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           85  68  83  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Simmons


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