Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Miami, FL
000
FXUS62 KMFL 142312
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
712 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 708 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
No changes to the forecast with the evening update, a dry and mild
night is expected for SFL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
A strengthening mid level ridge will continue to build into South
Florida through today and into Friday as well. At the surface, an
area of high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will
continue to slowly drift eastward. This will allow for a warm east
to southeasterly wind flow to remain in place through the end of
the week. While this will support mainly dry conditions through
Friday, there will be just enough lower level moisture across the
region to support the possibility of a brief isolated shower along
the breeze. High temperatures this afternoon and Friday will
range from the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas to the
mid to upper 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
The mid level ridge will maintain its presence over South Florida
through the weekend although it will begin to break down on Sunday
into early next week as surface high pressure over the western
Atlantic begins to weaken and advect further out into the Atlantic.
At the same time, a weakening frontal boundary draped over the
Southeast states will eventually stall out over Northern Florida and
the Gulf Coast States. As the boundary approaches, winds will
gradually veer and become more southerly for the weekend. While
mainly dry conditions will remain in place throughout the weekend,
an isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out on Sunday afternoon as
moisture advection and hotter temperatures arise due to the
southerly wind flow. High temperatures will rise into the upper 80s
across the east coast metro areas and potentially into the lower 90s
across interior portions of Southwest Florida.
As the ridge of high pressure begins to break down going into next
week, a deepening mid level trough will push across the Eastern
Seaboard. At the surface, this will allow for the stalled frontal
boundary to begin to move southward again through the Florida
Peninsula. Out ahead of the frontal boundary, winds will increase
out of the south-southwest on Monday as the pressure gradient across
South Florida tightens. While the exact details remain highly
uncertain, there will be enough lift and instability with the front
nearby to support a slight chance of thunderstorm development on
Monday and Monday night as the front pushes through as well as
general chances for scattered showers. The best chances for
thunderstorm development look to remain over the northern counties
closer to the front, which includes mainly the Lake Okeechobee
region. High temperatures on Monday will remain warm as they rise
into the upper 80s to around 90 across most areas.
After the front passes through the region on Monday night, high
pressure will build in from the north bringing a drier air mass to
the region on Tuesday. As winds increase out of the northwest, cold
air advection will take place which will bring temperatures back to
seasonable levels during the day on Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 708 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. E-SE winds
5-10kts should prevail overnight with SE winds around 10-15kts
prevailing during the day on Friday, apart from KAPF which will
see a shift to the SW in the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1140 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will continue across the
Atlantic waters through the end of the week. Over the Gulf of
Mexico, a gentle to moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will
remain in place during this time frame. Over the weekend, winds
gradually veer to become southerly across all local waters as a
frontal boundary stalls out to the north. Seas across the Atlantic
waters will generally remain at 3 feet or less through the
weekend. Meanwhile, seas across the Gulf waters will remain at 2
feet or less.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1140 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
As onshore flow continues, there will be a high risk of rip
currents across the Atlantic Coast beaches through the end of the
week. This weekend, the rip current risk will gradually diminish
as the wind flow becomes southerly.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 71 83 71 85 / 0 0 0 0
West Kendall 67 84 67 87 / 0 0 0 0
Opa-Locka 70 85 70 87 / 0 0 0 0
Homestead 70 84 70 86 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 71 82 71 84 / 0 0 0 0
N Ft Lauderdale 70 83 71 85 / 0 0 0 0
Pembroke Pines 70 85 69 87 / 0 0 0 0
West Palm Beach 68 82 68 86 / 0 0 0 0
Boca Raton 70 84 70 86 / 0 0 0 0
Naples 67 87 67 84 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Carr