Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 180524
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
124 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1200 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Low-lvl flow over SFL is gradually veering more SWrly as high
pressure over the western Atlantic loses its influence and a
low/frontal system approaches from the west. However, at present
that front still remains far enough upstream that warm and humid
conditions continue to prevail. High temps this afternoon are
expected to largely run in the upper 80s on the east coast, low
90s in the Interior, with the "coolest" readings likely being
along the Gulf coast where highs will only reach the low to mid
80s due to the SWrly flow. Large scale ascent remains minimal, so
PoPs remain only in the slight chance category with the highest
PoPs focused over PB & Broward counties where isolated activity
may be possible late this afternoon along the nearly-pinned sea
breeze.

The only forecast concern for the overnight period will be the
potential for fog and low stratus over portions of SW Florida, the
Interior, and the Gulf waters. Otherwise, a generally dry and mild
night is expected with lows ranging from the upper 60s to the low
70s.

On Monday the aforementioned front will continue to approach
area, but we will likely reside in the warm prefrontal SWrly
regime through more or less the entire day. Given 850mb temps
around 17C (around the 95th percentile for mid March), SWrly
flow, robust mixing, and limited cloud cover (once any AM stratus
scatters out) some locations near the east coast could see their
first 90 degree high of 2024 tomorrow. The prefrontal trough (and
the cold front itself) have trended slower with today`s runs and
therefore look to phase even less constructively with the weak
mid-lvl wave passing to our north. Consequently lowered PoPs for
Monday, with the best chances remaining over the northern third or
so of the area in the mid-late afternoon timeframe as the
prefrontal trough approaches.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

The cold front will fully cross South FL early on Tuesday and then
beautiful weather is expected through Thursday as cool high pressure
builds in from the north. Temperatures will be cooler than normal
through Wednesday and then near normal on Thursday.

Attention then turns to the next system which will cross the
peninsula on Friday into Saturday. There is some timing and location
differences between the global models, but ensemble means show the
potential for some locally heavy rain across the region Friday into
Friday evening. Too early to speculate on any severe threat, but
that will come into better focus later this week once there is
better model consensus. With the expected rain and cloud cover,
afternoon highs will remain on the cool side through at least
Saturday, although overnight lows will be mild in the 60s/70s the
end of the week and into early this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR Conditions generally prevail through the TAF cycle, though the
exception is near/over APF and Gulf waters where low CIGs/VIS may
be experienced until around 12-14Z. Winds generally light/vrb,
then SW around 10 kt with a gradual NW transition through the day
and into early tomorrow morning. ISLD SHRA/TSRA cannot be ruled
out, particularly near/around PBI.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Winds will begin to shift to the southwest by Monday ahead of an
approaching frontal boundary. A few showers and thunderstorms
will be possible Monday, particularly for the northern waters and
Lake Okeechobee ahead of the front. As the frontal boundary
passes through the region Monday night into Tuesday, winds will
increase out of the north and seas will increase, particularly
over the Atlantic waters. This will result in hazardous marine
conditions likely developing across the local waters Monday night
into Tuesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1200 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

The generally low rip current risk over the area beaches will
maintain itself through Monday. The risk may then increase over
the east coast beaches on Tuesday behind a cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            89  67  76  60 /  10  20  10   0
West Kendall     90  65  77  58 /  10  20  10   0
Opa-Locka        90  65  77  59 /  10  20  10   0
Homestead        89  66  77  60 /  10  20  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  88  65  74  60 /  10  20  10   0
N Ft Lauderdale  88  65  74  60 /  20  20  10   0
Pembroke Pines   90  65  76  59 /  10  20  10   0
West Palm Beach  88  62  71  57 /  30  20   0   0
Boca Raton       90  64  74  59 /  20  20  10   0
Naples           83  62  76  55 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Carr
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...SRB


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