159
FXUS62 KMHX 230831
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
431 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure briefly builds into the area from the south
through tonight followed by a frontal passage with limited
moisture on Wednesday. High pressure builds back into the area
from the north for the latter half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 340 AM Tuesday...High pressure will build across the area
today with the ridge axis moving offshore this afternoon. This
is notable because this will cause the cold northerly flow
currently occurring across eastern NC to shift to a warming
southerly flow this afternoon. As a result we expect warmer high
temps today in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Skies will remain
sunny to mostly today with light winds prevailing for most of
the day becoming a bit breezier toward evening as the gradient
tightens ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 340 AM Tuesday...As the high center moves off of the
southeast coast tonight, the aforementioned cold front will
approach the area late tonight. Expect some increase in clouds
across the far north and west late ahead of the front. The
tightening pressure gradient will produce southerly breezes
overnight with gusty winds along the coast and adjacent to the
sounds. Lows will range from the mid to upper 40s inland to the
low to mid 50s immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...Fairly quiet stretch in the long term
with high pressure dominating early in the week, mostly dry
front moving through mid-week, and another high pressure setting
up through Monday.

Wednesday...Low sweeps to our north, pinching the pressure
gradient with the high to our south. High pressure to our south
moves offshore through the day Wednesday, causing winds to veer
from southerly to westerly through the day. Wednesday looks to
be the gustiest day in the long term, with ample mixing, pinched
gradient, and cold front passage. Coastal plain will gust to
near 25 mph, and beaches will gust to 25-30mph. Fortunately RHs
will be above 35%, so fire weather should not be a concern.
Highs look to be in the mid to upper 70s inland, near 70 for
the coast, aided by the south veering west flow through the day.
Ahead of an approaching cold front, A region of pre frontal
troughing will provide enough lift for isolated weak showers in
the evening. Moisture is the limiting factor for shower
formation, and cloud bases will be at or above 5kft, allowing
for precip to evaporate before reaching the surface. Due to the
dry profile, was not comfortable with going higher than a Schc
PoP for the evening hours. Dry cold front will move through Wednesday
night from NW to SE. As the front moves through Wednesday night
into Thursday morning, northerly wind gusts will be increasing,
but should remain below 30 kts.

Thursday to Monday...With the cold front now offshore, gusty
conditions will prevail through the afternoon, particularly for
OBX where gusts of 30mph are possible. High pressure lingers to
our north Thursday, and will remain near the eastern seaboard
through the end of the work week, aided by omega blocking aloft.
Remainder of the long term remains uneventful due to the high. Low
moving through the eastern US in the weekend will encounter
this stubborn high, and some uncertainty remains on if it will
be pushed north around the high, or if the high will give way.
If the low moves north, we will have less chances of precip in
the weekend. If the low is able to shift the high offshore, we
will see increased chances of precip. No mentionable PoPs with
this update for Saturday as high looks to shelter us from any
incoming precip. High will shift to our south in the weekend,
and easterly flow will gradually veer to become southwesterly at
the start of next week. After Wednesday`s cold front, high
temps gradually increase every day, above 80 inland Sunday
onwards.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 340 AM Tuesday...Mostly VFR conditions are expected
through the TAF period as high pressure prevails through
tonight. Some very shallow fog this morning will dissipate by
12Z with clear skies and light winds expected through most of
today. Winds will increase by early evening and continue tonight
which will inhibit fog formation overnight.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 315 AM Monday...Pred VFR conditions expected through
Saturday with high pressure dominating the long term. Some
isolated showers Wednesday evening will be elevated in nature,
with cloud bases around 5kft.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 340 AM Tuesday...Based on current and expected conditions
over the next 24-36 hours we have: 1) Re-issued SCA`s for the
sounds and Alligator River and, 2) Extended the current SCA`s
for the coastal Waters through Wed and Wed evening. This is to
account for current elevated seas which will subside through
this evening but build back up to AOA 6 ft late tonight and Wed
in response to a tightening pressure gradient and increasing
winds associated with an approaching cold front tonight into
Wed.

Northerly winds 5-15 kt this morning will become S 10-15 kt
towards this evening. The S to SW winds will increase to 15-20
kt this evening and overnight with frequent gusts to 25 kt late
tonight.

4-7 ft seas early this morning will subside to 3-5 ft this
afternoon, then build back to 4-6 ft around daybreak Wed. The
exception to this will be over the outer central waters where
seas will remain 4-6 ft through tonight.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...6 ft seas (7-8ft for gulf stream) will
linger through Wednesday from the one-two punch of the deepening
low offshore Tuesday and stronger pressure gradient winds
Wednesday. Wind gusts for coastal waters and Pamlico Sound will
be near 25 kts during the morning/early afternoon hours
Wednesday from a pinched gradient, before decreasing Wednesday
evening. As a dry cold front moves southeastward Wednesday
night, northerly winds will pick up behind it, gusting near 25
kts for all waters except for the Pamlico and Neuse Rivers.
Stronger gusts behind the cold front Wednesday night into
Thursday will be a quick hitter, and at this point it is unsure
if the gusts will be handled with a SCA or a MWS. Remainder of
the long term looks to be quiet with seas settling to 3-5 feet
Thursday-Saturday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...RM/JME
MARINE...RM/JME