Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
899
FNUS72 KMHX 020229
FWSMHX
Spot Forecast for CP Triangle...MCAS Cherry Point Foresty
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1029 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EDT on May 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.
.DISCUSSION...
High pressure builds over Eastern North Carolina and remains overhead
through the end of the week keeping things dry into this weekend.
Overnight, light winds and clear skies will combine with moist low levels
to bring a threat for patchy fog with some of this fog potentially becoming
dense at times this evening. Any fog that develops is forecast to dissipate
around 8-9AM on Thursday with light and variable winds forecast through the
first half of the day. Seabreeze picks up in the afternoon and moves through
the burn location around the 2-4PM timeframe shifting winds to the south and
gusting to about 15 mph at times along and behind the seabreeze. Otherwise
humidities remain around 50% Thursday afternoon and mixing heights raise to
about 5300 ft. Dry conditions continue Thursday night with another threat for
fog development early Fri morning.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. Patchy fog early in the morning.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph late
in the afternoon.
Mixing Height.......Max 5300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Light and variable in the morning around 5 mph,
then increasing to 5 to 10 mph early in the
afternoon and shifting to the southeast and then
south.
Vent Rate...........Max 42780 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 9.
ADI.................Max 53.
Stability class.....3.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.98 to 30.03 inHg.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........49 50 50 45 36 31 28 24 21 20 17 15
Weather cov.....PTY PTY PTY
Weather type....FOG FOG FOG
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............61 62 65 68 72 75 78 80 82 82 81 80
RH..............100 100 97 90 79 71 62 58 53 53 54 56
20 FT wind dir..N N N NW N N NE E SE SE S S
20 FT wind spd..0 0 0 1 1 2 3 3 4 6 7 8
20 FT wind gust. 5 5 5 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.5 1.2 1.8 3.1 3.8 4.6 5.3 4.5 4.0 3.0
Transp wind dir.W W W NW NW N N E SE SE S S
Transp wind spd.5 5 5 5 3 3 6 7 8 9 9 10
LVORI...........9 9 7 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............2 5 5 7 8 14 28 40 53 49 44 39
Haines index....3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.2 2 3 5 6 11 22 32 43 42 37 31
Sfc pres (in)...999 001 002 003 003 003 002 001 000 999 998 998
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph early in the evening
becoming light.
Mixing Height.......Min 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 mph shifting to the west
around 5 mph early in the morning.
Vent Rate...........Min 2645 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 9.
ADI.................Min 3.
Stability class.....4.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.98 to 30.04 inHg.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........13 10 9 11 16 18 20 23 24 29 38 42
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............77 75 71 68 66 65 64 63 63 62 62 61
RH..............62 66 76 87 93 97 100 100 100 100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..8 6 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1
20 FT wind gust.14 5 5 5
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW W
Transp wind spd.10 9 8 8 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 6
LVORI...........2 3 4 6 6 8 9 9 9 9 9 9
ADI.............27 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3
Haines index....4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate mph-ft/1K.21 11 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3
Sfc pres (in)...998 998 999 000 001 002 003 004 004 004 002 002
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 10 mph late in
the afternoon.
Mixing Height.......Max 5300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 10 mph shifting to the south 5 to 10
mph in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 36340 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 9.
ADI.................Max 45.
Stability class.....3.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.02 to 30.07 inHg.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........39 30 23 19 15 17
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............61 64 72 79 82 81
RH..............100 100 79 60 53 54
20 ft wind......SW 2 SW 2 SW 3 SW 3 S 3 S 6
20 ft wind gust. 5 5 5
Mix hgt (ft)....600 800 2100 3500 5300 3500
Transport wind..W 6 W 5 W 6 SW 6 SE 7 S 9
LVORI...........9 9 4 2 1 1
ADI.............2 5 14 27 45 40
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate mph-ft/1K.3 4 11 21 36 33
Sfc pres (in)...30.03 30.06 30.07 30.06 30.03 30.02
$$
Forecaster...Fucheck
Requested by...Vincent Palmieri
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412940.0/MHX
.DELDT 05/02/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Vincent.Palmieri@usmc.mil