386
FXUS63 KMKX 290920
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
420 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few patches of dense fog possible this morning along and
  north of a Milwaukee to Madison to Lone Rock line.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this
  morning into early this afternoon. Severe storms and any
  flooding are very unlikely.

- Above normal temps likely Today through Thursday, cooling off
  towards normal this weekend.

- Another round of showers and possibly a rumble of thunder
  Tuesday evening/night. A stronger system with additional
  showers / thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday,
  possibly continuing into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 420 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Today through Tuesday:

The stalled front currently spans from east to west across our CWA
(roughly northern Milwaukee suburbs to Madison to Lone Rock),
with areas along and north of the front experiencing
intermittent fog, with a few patches beneath 1 SM visibility.
The front is expected to begin a gradual drift northward over
the next few hours, with gentle southerly winds developing and
fog dissipating as it passes. Any lingering fog should dissipate
before noon today. WAA south of the front will allow temps to
rapidly climb to roughly 70 degrees today, with some sunshine
peeking though scattered to broken diurnal cumulus clouds.

Scattered showers are expected (possibly with some thunder) this
morning, becoming more isolated and clearing out this afternoon.
Severe weather and flooding from said activity are highly
unlikely, given a lack of sufficient CAPE to balance with the
60+ kts of deep shear in place. Any showers / storms are likely
to be shredded by the shear before they can become fully
developed. Dry weather prevails this evening into Tuesday, with
similarly warm daytime high temperatures (near 70) and mostly
sunny skies.

Sheppard

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 420 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Tuesday night through Sunday:

Showers are expected Tuesday evening/night as a shortwave swings
through. Instability will be diminishing as the wave approaches,
with models showing a general decrease in coverage/intensity of
precip as it moves into southern Wisconsin. Looks like enough
forcing and moisture for higher confidence in precip (60%+) in the
north, with decreasing chances towards the south. Still thinking
there could be some thunder as the showers move into the area.

High pressure will briefly return on Wednesday, with dry weather
and mild temps into the low 70s. A stronger low pressure system
is then expected to gradually lift through the region Wednesday
night through Friday. Rounds of showers are likely (60%+) at
times with this system, with some occasional thunder also
possible. Models are still showing the highest chance for
thunderstorms on Thursday, as the warm sector pushes into or close
to southern Wisconsin. There are some indications that some of the
storms could be strong to severe on Thursday, if the better
forcing moves through closer to peak daytime heating and
instability. A lot of time left for details to change, but this is
worth keeping an eye on. Above normal temps are likely through
Thursday, cooling back towards normal by the weekend.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 420 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Patches of dense fog (possibly as low as 1/4 SM) are possible
this morning along and north of a line from Milwaukee to Madison
to Lone Rock WI. The warm front (positioned along said line)
will progress northward after sunrise today, clearing out the
fog and allowing southwest winds (gusting upwards of 20 kts) to
develop this afternoon. With the front / fog boundary being
positioned in northern Milwaukee county already, KMKE airport
has remained free of fog in recent observations, and will likely
remain so.

Scattered showers are expected this morning, decreasing in
coverage and eventually clearing out this afternoon. A few
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out at this time, but severe
weather is not expected. Dry weather prevails this evening
through the daytime hours of Tuesday.

For airports currently in MVFR or IFR (generally, north of the
front), a gradual improvement in cloud ceilings is expected
today as the front progresses. Expecting diurnal cumulus
(maintaining roughly BKN coverage) to lift to 3500 ft by the mid
afternoon today.

Sheppard

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 420 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Low pressure around 29.7 inches will continue northeastward through
Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin this morning, crossing Lake
Superior early Tuesday. The warm front of this low pressure
currently rests over central Lake Michigan, and will resume its
northward motion by sunrise today, reaching the northern end of the
lake by tonight. Areas of fog are expected over the lake this
morning. Areas south of the warm front are expected to see the fog
lift by this afternoon, while patches of fog linger along and north
of the front.

South winds to 20 kts are expected south of the front today, with
gusty east winds north of the front (northern quarter of the
lake). Nearshore zones may see south winds up to 25 kts, hence
the Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until this evening.
East gusts to gale force are possible over the far northern tip
of the lake this morning. When the front finishes crossing the
lake late tonight, gentle southwest winds are expected for all
areas. South winds to 15 kts expected Tuesday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today, but storms
are not expected to be severe at this time.

Sheppard

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM
     Monday.

&&

$$

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