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000
FNUS73 KMKX 211238
FWSMKX

Spot Forecast for Johnson Rx Burn...WI DNR
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
738 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on April 21.

Please contact the National Weather Service if conditions become
unrepresentative or if you have questions/concerns about this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Northwesterly winds around 10 mph are expected at ignition.
Expect gusts of 20 to 25 mph to develop between 1300 and 1500 CDT,
with mixing heights rising to 6000-7000 ft around the same time
frame. A combination of high mixing heights and brisk
northwesterly winds will provide excellent smoke dispersal this
afternoon. RH values are expected to fall to 25 to 30 percent this
afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Temperature.........50 at ignition...Max 58.
RH..................36 percent at ignition...Min 26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 9 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northwest winds 9 to 12
                    mph.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 7100 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 17 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent /74000 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /134300 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2   3   4   12  19  26  24
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............50  52  53  54  56  57  57
RH..............36  32  29  28  29  27  27
20 FT wind dir..NW  W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..9   10  10  11  11  11  11
20 FT wind gust.14  14  14  16  16  16  16
Mix hgt (kft)...4.9 5.5 6.0 6.4 6.9 7.1 5.9
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  W   NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.17  18  20  20  20  22  21
Haines index....4   4   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100074  88  102 110 117 134 107

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent). Areas of frost
                    early in the morning.
Temperature.........Min 36.
RH..................Max 76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 9 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 5 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 16 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 9 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (50000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2500 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........21  19  14  9   4   3   2   1   1   1   1   2
Weather cov.....                                            ARS
Weather type....                                            FST
Tstm cov........
Temp............56  54  50  47  45  43  42  40  39  38  38  37
RH..............29  32  37  45  53  57  60  64  70  70  70  72
20 FT wind dir..NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..9   7   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.14  11  10  8   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...3.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW
Transp wind spd.16  10  10  9   9   9   10  10  10  10  10  9
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100050  5   5   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (55-65 percent). Areas of frost early in
                    the morning. Slight chance of rain showers late
                    in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 65.
RH..................Min 25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 13 mph with gusts to
                    around 19 mph increasing to 15 to 16 mph with
                    gusts to around 23 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 18 mph increasing to 22 to 30
                    mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (93400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (82300
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2   2   5   8   11  25  39  53  53  53  54  65
Weather cov.....ARS                                         SCH
Weather type....FST                                         RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............37  38  43  49  54  57  59  61  62  63  63  62
RH..............72  73  60  50  43  35  32  28  27  26  26  28
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..5   5   6   7   9   11  13  15  16  17  17  16
20 FT wind gust.6   7   10  13  16  18  19  21  22  23  23  23
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.2 4.0 4.4 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 3.6
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  13  18  22  24  25  26  29  30  26
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/10003   3   5   12  35  76  93  108 112 120 124 82

$$
Forecaster...MH
Requested by...Cassandra Young
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411568.0/MKX
.DELDT 04/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL cassandra.young@wisconsin.gov