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000
FXUS62 KMLB 110808
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
408 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Key Messages:
-Windy, hot today ahead of rain and storm chances.
-A few storms could be strong to severe this afternoon,
 especially N of I-4.
-A pleasant weekend is on the way.

Today...It will be an active weather day across east central
Florida, with several different hazard types.

Severe Threat: A mid/upper level low over the southern US moves
northward into the Great Lakes region today, while it merges with a
trough dropping through southern Canada. These features will drag a
surface cold front through the local area this afternoon and into
this evening. Scattered to numerous showers with embedded lightning
storms are forecast along the front. PoPs 80% from Titusville
northward, 60-70% for southern Brevard County and Okeechobee County,
and 20-40% for the Treasure Coast through sunset. Forecast MUCAPE
and mid-level lapse rates have improved slightly compared to this
time yesterday, maintaining the concern for a few storms to become
strong to severe this afternoon. Gusty winds remain the main threat,
with forecast Bulk Shear 45-55kts from around Melbourne northward.
With similar storm motions, it shouldn`t take much for a few wind
gusts around 60-65mph to mix down. In addition, 0-3km SRH could
approach 150-200m2/s2 along and north of I-4 and could lead to a
tornado along the line, though this risk is lower than the overall
wind risk. Small hail will be possible, but 500mb temperatures -8/-9C
should limit the size of any hail. Quick heavy downpours will
accompany the showers and storms. Areas along and north of I-4
remain in a Slight Risk (2/5) for severe weather today, while
locations south of I-4 to around Melbourne/Okeechobee remain in a
Marginal Risk (1/5).

CAMs are in decent agreement on timing of the onset of showers and
storms today. The line should affect northern portions of the area
(north of I-4) from around 2-5PM, metro Orlando to Melbourne from 3-
7PM, and the Treasure Coast/Okeechobee County from 6-10PM, with dry
conditions following the front.

Wind: The tightening pressure gradient ahead of the cold front, a
well mixed atmosphere, and the proximity of the subtropical jet will
lead to windy conditions across the area by mid-morning. Sustained
southwesterly winds are forecast around 20-30mph today. Forecast
925mb winds around 35-40kts will occasionally mix down this
afternoon, producing wind gusts up to 40+mph outside of any
convection. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 10AM to 8PM today,
though breezy conditions will begin early this morning. Winds will
diminish behind the frontal passage across the north late this
afternoon, but remain breezy into the evening.

Gusty winds parallel to the shore will lead to a strong, northward
flowing longshore current at area beaches today. A Beach Hazards
Statement is in effect. There will also be a Moderate Risk of rip
currents.

Temperatures: Well above normal temperatures are forecast for much
of the local area today. Higher cloud cover north of I-4 will keep
temperatures in the mid-80s there. However, cloud cover should hold
off long enough to allow for temperatures to the south to soar into
the upper 80s to lower 90s. A few record high temperatures may still
be threatened today, as Melbourne, Vero Beach, and Fort Pierce are
forecast within 1-3 degrees of their daily record high. However, no
sites are explicitly forecast to set a new record at this time. The
limiting (or enhancing) factor for highs today will be the cloud
cover/timing of the front.

Tonight...The front is forecast to reach the Treasure Coast by the
evening hours, with PoPs up to 30-40% persist through around
midnight. The front will be continuing to lose strength as it moves
southward, as the best dynamics pull away from the area, with just a
few lightning storms left by this time. Gusty winds will remain a
concern, as storms will be quick-moving at around 40-45kts, but the
overall severe threat looks to be low by this time. Behind the
front, dry conditions prevail, as northwesterly winds diminish to 5-
10mph by daybreak. Overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s,
though normally cooler spots in Lake and Volusia Counties could see
the mid-50s.

Friday-Sunday... An upper level trough over the Great Lakes region
on Friday will shift east and northward into the Northeast US by
Saturday, and moving out into the Atlantic off the Canadian coast by
Sunday. A dry post-frontal trough will move through the local area
Friday afternoon and into the evening. Surface high pressure will
build eastward over the Deep south on Saturday, shifting offshore
the Florida eastern coast on Sunday. Locally, winds will decrease
and veer west-northwest on Friday as the cold front across South
Florida continues to move southward, with winds veering onshore
briefly along the coast as the dry post-frontal trough pushes
through. Winds will then veer northeast on Saturday as the high
pressure builds in, with speeds around 10-15 mph and gusts of 20 to
25mph possible into the afternoon, before winds veer east to
southeast on Sunday as the high pressure shifts eastwards just off
the eastern Florida coast. Sunny skies and dry conditions will
prevail with temperatures on a slight warming trend through the
weekend. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s on
Friday, mid to upper 70s east of I-95 and mid 70s to low 80s west of
I-95 on Saturday, and upper 70s to low 80s east of I-95 and low to
mid 80s west of I-95 on Sunday.  Overnight lows will be in the low
to mid 50s Friday and Saturday night, and upper 50s to low 60s east
of I-95 and low to mid 50s west of I-95 on Sunday night.

Monday-Wednesday...Mid and upper level ridge will build across the
GOMEX and over Florida peninsula through mid week, all the while
shifting slightly eastward. Surface high pressure in the western
Atlantic waters will build westward over the Florida peninsula and
into the GOMEX and Deep South through midweek. Locally, winds will
be east to southeast at 10-15mph each afternoon with gusts up to 20
mph possible. Dry conditions will prevail through mid week, with no
mentionable rain chances through the period. Sunny skies will
continue to dominate with temperatures well above normal for this
time of year. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s east of
I-95 and mid to upper 80s west of I-95 each afternoon, with low 90s
possible in the far western interior on Wednesday. Overnight lows
will be in the mid to upper 50s to low 60s on Monday night, and low
to mid 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Breezy southerly winds prior to sunrise this morning will become
windy out of the southwest by mid-morning. Sustained winds
20-25kts, with gusts 35+kts are forecast outside of convection. A
Wind Advisory is in effect from 15Z-0Z for the entire area. Then,
a cold front will push southward through the area this afternoon,
containing scattered to numerous showers and embedded lightning
storms. A few storms could produce strong to severe (50-55kt) wind
gusts. The front should impact LEE from around 18-20Z, then spread
southward through the afternoon, clearing the Treasure Coast by
around 2Z. It will be weakening, with the highest chance of strong
to severe storms from around MCO/ISM northward. TEMPOs have been
included at all sites north of MLB for MVFR/IFR reductions in
convection and stronger wind gusts. Have not included them for
the Treasure Coast at this time, as showers and storms are
forecast to be weaker there. Will monitor for future updates.
Behind the front, dry conditions prevail, with northwesterly winds
becoming 5-10kts late tonight.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Today-Tonight...Hazardous boating conditions into tonight, due to
a strong cold front moving through the area this afternoon.
Southerly winds 20-25kts nearshore and up to 25-30kts offshore
today. Gusts to gale force are forecast offshore north of
Sebastian Inlet, with occasional gusts to gale-force for the
offshore Treasure Coast waters. Seas 6-8ft offshore and 4-6ft
nearshore through the daytime hours. Small Craft Advisories are in
effect for the nearshore zones, as well as the offshore waters
south of Sebastian Inlet through 8PM, with a Gale Warning in
effect for the offshore Brevard and Volusia County waters.

Will see winds veer southwesterly along the front, then
northwesterly tonight behind it. The pressure gradient will ease
after the frontal passage, with winds becoming 15-20kts by
daybreak. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the offshore
waters from 8PM to 8AM.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will accompany the
frontal passage this afternoon, as it moves southward through the
local waters. A few storms could be strong to severe.

Friday- Monday... Poor boating conditions will be possible in the
offshore waters into the early weekend, with boating conditions
improving and becoming favorable into early week. Northwest winds 10-
15 KT on Friday will briefly increase to around 20 KT overnight
before winds become north to northeast on Saturday at 10-15 KT.
Winds will veer east to southeast on Sunday as surface high pressure
moves offshore the eastern Florida coast with winds remaining
southeast into early week. Seas will be 3-5ft on Friday, building up
to 6 ft in the offshore waters on Saturday before subsiding to 2-4ft
on Sunday, and 2-3ft on Monday. No rain chances through the
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Today...Near-critical fire weather conditions today, with
sustained southwesterly winds 20-30mph and gusts to 35-40+mph. A
Wind Advisory is in effect from 10AM through 8PM for the entire
area. Dispersions this afternoon will be excellent and control
issues are likely. Well above normal temperatures reaching the
upper 80s to lower 90s across much of the area will contribute to
min RH values as low as 45% south of I-4.

In addition, a cold front will pass southward through the area
this afternoon, bringing scattered to numerous showers and
embedded lightning storms. A few storms could be strong to severe,
producing wind gusts up to 60-65mph, lightning strikes, small
hail, and possibly a tornado. The highest threat will be north of
I-4. The threat will then diminish into the evening, before the
front clears the Treasure Coast around midnight.

Friday-Sunday... Fire sensitive to critical fire weather conditions
are forecast into the weekend. Drier air will filter across east
central Florida behind a cold front on Friday. West to northwest
winds at 8-12 KT Friday will veer north to northeast on Saturday
around 10 KT before becoming east to southeast on Sunday with speeds
at 8-12 KT once again. Minimum RH values are expected to reach the
mid 30s to low 40s Friday, and then on Saturday Min RH values are
forecast to fall into the mid 20s to low 30s west of I-95 and the
mid 30s to low 40s along the coast. Min RH values are then forecast
to reach low 30s to low 40s west of I-95, and low to mid 40s east of
I-95 on Sunday. There is a Moderate Risk for Significant Fire
Potential north of the Treasure Coast on Friday, and across all the
east central Florida Saturday and Sunday.

Monday-Wednesday... Fire sensitive weather conditions are forecast to
continue through mid-week. East to southeast winds will remain in
place through the time period, with speeds generally 10-15 KT.
Minimum RH values are forecast to fall into the low 30s to low 40s
west of I-95, and low to mid 40s east of I-95 on Monday, and mid 30s
to mid 40s east of I-95, and generally in the 50s to low 60s east of
I-95 on Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a Moderate Risk for
Significant Fire Potential across all the east central Florida on
Monday, and north of the Treasure Coast on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  58  80  55 /  80   0   0   0
MCO  87  61  80  57 /  80   0   0   0
MLB  90  61  80  57 /  70  30   0   0
VRB  91  61  82  56 /  40  40   0   0
LEE  83  58  79  55 /  80   0   0   0
SFB  88  60  81  55 /  80   0   0   0
ORL  87  61  80  57 /  80   0   0   0
FPR  91  60  81  55 /  30  40   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-
     264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ550-552-
     555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday
     for AMZ570-572.

     Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     AMZ570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ575.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leahy
LONG TERM...Watson
AVIATION...Leahy