Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
814 FXUS62 KMLB 100253 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1053 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .UPDATE... Issued at 1045 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Muggy conditions are in place tonight, characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s and dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s. The 23z sounding from XMR indicated PW of 1.5 with some mid-level drying around 700mb. Overnight, dry weather is forecast, though attention will be on the potential for the development of showers and storms across the FL Panhandle toward daybreak. Some, and certainly not all, hi-res guidance suggests a complex of showers and lighting storms diving southeastward toward north-central Florida from late morning into the afternoon. Some of this activity may decay as it works south, sending an outflow boundary in our direction, for more convection to form along as peak heating occurs in the afternoon. This is a very conditional threat and not everyone will see rain or storms. In fact, there is an equal chance that rain will be suppressed through most of the day. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts tomorrow morning for updates on rain potential. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 1045 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 VFR conditions persist overnight with the potential for MVFR CIGs after 09z. Southwest winds eventually decrease overnight, increasing again after 14z-15z Friday to around 15 kt (gusting 20-25 kt). Low confidence exists in VCSH/VCTS after 14z, starting near DAB and continuing south toward MCO and surrounding terminals after 17z-18z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1045 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Southwest winds 15-20 kt persist over the Gulf Stream tonight, where small craft should exercise caution. Winds decrease toward daybreak Friday. Showers and isolated lightning storms are possible offshore. Seas 2-3 ft nearshore, up to 4 ft offshore. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1050 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Fire danger remains tonight, mainly in relation to ongoing brush fires, including one near Daytona/Port Orange. Smoke may eventually settle as winds decrease toward daybreak Friday. Motorists should exercise caution if encountering smoke and lower visibility while driving. Combined winds, low RH, and dry fuels will produce near critical to critical fire weather conditions across the area Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. Isolated showers and lightning storms may develop late morning into the afternoon, though confidence remains low in coverage. Any lightning strikes could lead to additional fire starts. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 431 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Record Highs for Friday. DAB 10-May 94 2008 LEE 10-May 96 2009 SFB 10-May 98 2009 MCO 10-May 98 1916 MLB 10-May 95 1978 VRB 10-May 95 1976 FPR 10-May 96 2008 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 91 70 84 / 10 40 40 10 MCO 74 94 73 91 / 0 10 30 10 MLB 73 94 72 89 / 0 10 20 10 VRB 72 96 70 91 / 10 10 20 20 LEE 75 90 73 89 / 10 20 40 10 SFB 74 93 72 90 / 0 20 30 10 ORL 75 94 73 91 / 0 20 30 10 FPR 71 97 70 91 / 0 10 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Schaper LONG TERM...Law AVIATION...Schaper