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000
FXUS64 KMOB 121120
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
619 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions prevail across the forecast area through tonight.
Winds remain out of the west northwest to northwest at around 5 to
10 knots during the day, becoming less than 5 knots after sunset.
MM/25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

An upper level ridge of high pressure will gradually build
eastward through the weekend as surface high pressure currently
centered over the Arklatex moves eastward to a position over the
north-central Gulf Coast on Saturday. Dry northwesterly low level
flow will keep humidity values low through the weekend. Dry
conditions under clear skies can also be expected through the near
term forecast period with high temperatures in the lower to middle
70s today, warming into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees on
Saturday. Low temperatures tonight should be cool with the dry air
mass in place and favorable radiational cooling conditions
expected. Lows should drop into the middle 40s in interior
southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama, to the lower 50s
along the coast.

A high risk for life threatening rip currents will continue
today along the Florida beaches, lowering to a moderate risk
tonight and low risk on Saturday. There will remain a moderate
risk for rip currents at the Alabama beaches today, lowering to
low risk for tonight and Saturday. /JLH

SHORT AND EXTENDED TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Upper level high pressure will remain anchored over the Gulf Coast
states through the weekend into early next week as surface high
pressure shifts to a position off of the Southeast U.S. coast by
Monday. A potent upper level trough will eject northeast from the
Southern Plains across the Mid South by Wednesday. This trough
should remain far enough to our north as not to impact the
sensible weather over our area. The upper ridge will temporarily
weaken in response to the trough to the northwest, but should
restrengthen by Thursday.

This will result in dry weather conditions through the period
along with warmer temperatures. Highs should reach into the lower
to middle 80s each day through Wednesday and even warmer on
Thursday with highs in the middle to upper 80s. Low temperatures
and humidity levels will also be on the rise into next week as
return southerly flow around the surface high to our east advects
a warmer and moister air mass northward. This should result in low
temperatures rising into the upper 50s to middle 60s. In
addition, with the increasing low level moisture and weak
isentropic ascent should support the return of overnight low
stratus beginning Tuesday night and continuing through the
remainder of the extended forecast period. These clouds should
erode out by mid morning each day for the middle to end of next
week. /JLH

MARINE...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Light to occasionally moderate offshore flow today becomes light to
moderate onshore flow this weekend. This onshore flow will persist
into the middle of next week. Seas continue to relax into the
weekend, building once again early to mid week. A Small Craft
Advisory for seas up to 7 feet over the offshore waters out 20 to 60
nautical miles will expire around 7 AM this morning. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  49  80  54  80  56  80  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   76  52  78  56  77  60  77  63 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      74  55  75  60  76  63  76  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   74  45  80  50  82  51  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  74  46  80  50  83  52  84  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      72  44  78  51  82  52  83  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   75  45  80  50  82  52  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ670-675.

&&

$$

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