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000
FNUS73 KMPX 151037
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Howard Farm WPA Rx...USFWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
537 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CDT on April 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Relative humidity in the 50-60 percent range at ignition, with
light winds early this morning. Elevated fire weather concerns
continue today, as RH`s fall into the low 20s this afternoon.
Easterly winds of 5-10 mph early this morning will increase to
15-20 this afternoon, with gusts near 30 mph.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Temperature.........46 at ignition...Max 72.
RH..................60 percent at ignition...Min 21 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northeast at 7 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise East winds 7 to 16 mph
                    increasing to 18 to 21 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /3700 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /94400 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 10 to 18 mph increasing to 20 to 24 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR PC  PC  MCR MCR MCR MCR PC  PC  MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............46  44  47  51  57  61  64  67  70  72  72  72
RH..............60  68  63  56  43  35  31  28  23  21  23  23
20 FT wind dir..NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..7   8   9   10  13  13  14  14  15  16  18  21
20 FT wind gust.10  12  14  17  18  18  18  20  21  22  25  29
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.1 2.6 2.8 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.5
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.10  13  15  17  17  18  18  17  18  20  21  24
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms overnight. Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 3 am.
Temperature.........Min 47.
RH..................Max 86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 16 to 21 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (92400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (12300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 21 to 25 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers likely
                    early in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms
                    through the day. Rain showers.
Temperature.........Max 58.
RH..................Min 55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. East winds 21 to 25 mph with gusts to
                    around 36 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (29300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (63200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 28 to 37 mph shifting to the east 29
                    to 38 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Strus
Requested by...Ryan Williams
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410816.0/MPX
.DELDT 04/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ryan_williams@fws.gov