095
FXUS64 KMRX 281753 AAC
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
153 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Visible satellite imagery shows an area of clouds covering
portions of the southern plateau and southern Tennessee valley
this morning. This is appears to be associated with moisture
advection and weak ascent along the 295K theta surface. As daytime
heating continues and the mixed layer deepens, these clouds should
scatter out rather quickly by midday, leaving partly cloudy skies
at worst in those areas. Made some adjustments to sky cover to
come in line with observations. Don`t see a need to adjust
temperatures yet as these clouds should dissipate soon, and none
of the high res or rapid update guidance show any substantial
difference in forecast highs in those areas vs the current
forecast. Wouldn`t be surprised if the forecast winds up being a
degree or two high though.

Otherwise, no changes for the morning update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Key Messages:

1. The Wind Advisory will be allowed to expire at 4 AM.

2. Warm temperatures today under mostly sunny skies.

Discussion:

Current wind gust speeds have dropped under 40 mph at Cove Mountain
and Camp Creek, and are expected to continue to trend downward, so
the Wind Advisory will be allowed to expire at 4 AM.

A large high pressure ridge through the lower and mid levels will
continue to be located east of the area today and tonight, just of
the NC/SC coastline. With the southerly low level flow and scattered
to no cloud cover, highs today will be warm, in the lower 80s in
most Valley locations. Tonight will be mostly clear, and perhaps a
little breezy in the mountains and foothills once again as the
nocturnal southerly jet picks up, but likely under Advisory
criteria. Lows will be mainly in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 349 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Key Messages:

1. Continued above normal temperatures through the upcoming week.

2. Active weather pattern to bring chances for showers and
storms Tuesday, Thursday night through Saturday.

Discussion:

Starting Monday the upper trough to the west begins to shift east
toward the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. The main surface low will be
far to the northwest over WI and MN. The cold front will move from
the upper Mississippi Valley and approach the lower Mississippi
Valley and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Monday evening. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop Monday night and continue Tuesday across
the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Expect rain showers and possible
thunderstorms to move onto the plateau during the day Tuesday. Some
may be strong. There also could be some locally heavy rainfall but
flooding right now looks to not be significant.

The cold front will be slowly crossing east Tennessee Monday night
and Tuesday. The convection will be through by late Tuesday evening
with ridging aloft moving in for the rest of the night. Wednesday
should start out dry with higher pressure settling in. Also dry
Wednesday night although some shortwave energy may produce a few
showers across eastern KY and southwest VA. Higher pressure will
build back in Wednesday for a mostly sunny day but a new system with
cold front will approach the western sections Thursday into Friday.
Thursday ahead of the front will likely be the warmest day of the
week just ahead of the front. Highs mid to upper 80s Thursday. Rain
may hold off until Thursday night as the front is moving slow.
Friday all areas get some more showers and possible storms. The
precipitation should move out Saturday afternoon with clearing by
evening. A more significant rainfall is expected with this later
system with the slow movement. Possibly 0.5 to one inch of rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The 18z TAFs will be a persistence forecast since there`s little
change expected in the weather pattern. Continued southerly moist
flow should produce a temporary SCT-BKN025 deck at KCHA between
roughly 10z and 13z or so. Otherwise, VFR Conditions are expected
at all terminals. Only other forecast item of note will be the
occurrence of gusty winds again tomorrow at KCHA, with gusts of
18-20kt expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             83  61  83  64 /   0   0   0  70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  83  59  83  62 /   0   0   0  40
Oak Ridge, TN                       83  59  83  62 /   0   0   0  50
Tri Cities Airport, TN              81  55  82  57 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CD
LONG TERM....TD
AVIATION...CD