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000
FXUS65 KMSO 090946
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
346 AM MDT Tue Apr 9 2024

.DISCUSSION...Light precipitation continues to move into northwest
Montana and central Idaho this morning. Snow levels are down to
around 4500 feet, which will allow for a light dusting of snow on
area mountain passes, especially for Lookout, Marias and Lolo
Passes. Precipitation will become more showery through the day,
with a few lightning strikes possible this afternoon and early
evening. Breezy winds are anticipated, especially across northwest
Montana where gusts 25 to 30 mph are expected.

Precipitation will decrease rapidly with sunset as a ridge of high
pressure begins to build over western Montana and north central
Idaho. Patchy morning fog is not our of the question, but should
be shortlived. The ridge of high pressure will be firmly in place
over the region into Friday. Recent model trends are beginning to
hang on to high pressure longer than previous forecast cycles,
maintaining warm and relatively dry conditions. As the flow aloft
transitions to southwesterly and then southerly, a favorable
pattern for afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be in place
through the weekend. Speaking of the weekend, there is still a
fair amount of spread in just how warm temperatures will be. A
majority of model solutions (60 percent) strengthen high pressure
as a cut off low pressure system digs southwards along the
California coast. The other 40 percent of forecast models support
a cooler more troughy pattern.

By early next week, forecast models largely favor (75 percent) a
cooler and potentially wet pattern returning to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Ceilings continue to lower this morning, especially
across northwest Montana and central Idaho as a wave of energy
brings precipitation to the region. Expect the higher terrain to
be obscured. Precipitation will become more showery in nature this
afternoon, with a few lightning strikes possible. Breezy westerly
winds are anticipated for all airfields, with gusts to near 25 kts
possible for KGPI, KMSO, KBTM and KHRF. SHowers will come to an
end around sunset this evening as high pressure begins to build
over the region. Some patchy fog will be possible by Wednesday
morning.





&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$