972
FXUS66 KMTR 050240
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
740 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024

...New UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 105 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024

Rainfall ending this afternoon from north to south. Some clearing
this afternoon with light isolated showers tonight. Mostly clear
Sunday with a warming trend on track for the upcoming week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 716 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024

Although the main rain bands have moved out of our region, our
radar continues to stay on "precip" mode to monitor some of the
post-frontal cells lingering behind. Little to no concerns for
post-frontal convection as well, as the mid-level environment
lacks sufficient instability to produce lightning. The top three
places with the highest rainfall totals for the entire region in
the last 24 hours were Marin County (1-1.88 inches), San Mateo
County (0.90-1.64 inches), and Santa Cruz (1-1.61 inches). The
forecast continues to be on track for the next weather concern of
below average cold temperatures for tonight and Sunday night into
Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 105 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024

Rain unfolding as expected as of midday with the heaviest having
pushed through with the initial cold front this morning. Areas
from the Bay Area southward will continue to see light-to-moderate
rain into the this afternoon, but as of writing, observed amounts
are generally 0.6-1.5" with the highest amounts being in the
coastal ranges. Clearing will occur rather abruptly through this
afternoon and evening from north to south with visible satellite
showing a sharp cutoff in overcast cloud cover on the back side of
the front. We can expect some degree of isolated showers behind
the front tonight, but instability appears lacking overall which
would hinder the coverage and intensity of any post-frontal
showers a bit. No lightning strikes thus far neither, given the
fairly suppressed nature of the post-frontal convection. Can`t
rule out a strike or two as we go into tonight, but it`s a very
small chance.

Sunday looks to be clear and pleasant, despite chilly temps with
highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 105 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024

The next week is on track to be clear and dry with temps steadily
increasing each day into late week. Ridging dominates as we
settle into a more seasonal pattern. By Friday, expect temperatures
5-10 degrees above normal...mid-to-upper 80s for inland valleys,
upper 70s to lower 80s elsewhere, and upper 60s to lower 70s along
the coast. Friday may be a potential day to highlight an elevated
risk of heat-related illness for sensitive groups in urban areas
of the South Bay and interior East Bay valleys. Stay tuned to the
forecast as this will likely be, yet again, among the warmest
temps some have seen this year so far.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 508 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024

Radar shows main band of rain moving out of the Bay Area and Central
Coast. Scattered showers will continue through early tomorrow
morning with guidance indicating showers to end by 12-14Z. Expect
winds out of the W/NW with breezy to gusty conditions continuing
through the end of the TAF period for most sites. Wind speeds have
been slightly underperforming at times so will continue to monitor
and adjust if gusts show signs of weakening earlier than currently
forecast. CIGs have lifted for most sites with VFR expected through
the rest of the TAF period. If a stronger shower moves over the
airport temporary decreases in vis and CIGs are possible.

Vicinity of SFO...Primarily VFR with MVFR CIGs possible if scattered
showers move directly over the airport. Scattered showers to
continue through 12-14Z. Gusty W to NW winds continue through the
TAF period with winds temporarily weakening overnight. HREF guidance
shows mostly clear skies overnight after showers move through with
only few to scattered low level clouds expected.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Scattered showers continuing into the
evening across the Central Coast with VFR conditions expected
through the TAF period. Gusty W to NW winds start to weaken heading
into the late evening with moderate NW winds returning by mid
tomorrow morning. Moderate confidence that low level clouds will
remain few to scattered overnight with clear skies expected by mid
tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 508 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024

Fresh northwesterly breezes will prevail with scattered rain
showers possible into the night. Dry conditions return and winds
reduce into Sunday. Gusty winds build into the middle of the next
work week and last into the late week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-Pt
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Mry
     Bay-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SO
SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Murdock

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