861
FXUS64 KOHX 041757
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1257 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Scattered showers and storms have been focused along the I-40
corridor today. We`ll likely see the peak of the activity over the
next couple of hours, then coverage should fall off as these
storms weaken and move northeast. While there is little forcing
and shear to work with today, some updrafts could become strong,
producing lightning and subsevere gusty winds. Activity will
gradually taper off this afternoon. Cloud cover is keeping
temperatures from becoming too warm too fast, but we could still
see highs in the upper 70s and lows 80s before the day ends. Rain
chances remain low tonight for most of the area. Our southern
counties retain the best chance for an overnight shower and storm
heading into Sunday. Temperatures should be slightly warmer Sunday
afternoon as the bulk of any precip remains outside of Middle TN.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Showers and thunderstorms build back into the area late Sunday
night into Monday as a shortwave swings into the Tennessee Valley
from the southwest. There may be enough instability and shear to
support a few strong storms on Monday, but severe isn`t expected
at that point. The better potential for strong to possibly severe
storms exists on Tuesday and Wednesday. A low pressure system over
the northern plains will swing a front through the Mississippi
Valley Tuesday. We`ll just see the tail end of that...which will
help push SBCAPE values over 2000 j/kg in our western counties along
with an increase in bulk shear values (around 45 knots). PWATS are
expected to be between 1.25 and 1.4 inches as well, so some strong
to severe storms aren`t out of the question that afternoon,
especially over our west where instability appears to be
greatest. Wednesday will be similar, but with the higher CAPE
values pushing further into Middle TN. Another developing low
pressure system is expected to stir up storms to our west...where
the better upper support exists, but we`ll still be close enough
for some strong to severe storms to develop Wednesday afternoon
and overnight.

The good news is that we should see a break in precip after
Wednesday night`s system. Some models are slow to move the rain
out, but at some point Thursday or Friday we should see a
reprieve from the repeated rounds of showers. Temperatures are
also expected to back off as we head into Friday thanks to a
passing upper wave and northwest winds aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have developed and are moving E through
the mid state. Largely VFR conditions are present but with any
passing storm, periods of VIS and CIG dropping down to MVFR to IFR
can be expected. Later this afternoon, showers and thunderstorms
diminish in coverage with VFR conditions for the remainder of the
forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      64  84  66  82 /  10  50  80  90
Clarksville    63  82  64  80 /  10  50  80  80
Crossville     59  79  61  77 /  40  40  80  90
Columbia       62  84  64  82 /  20  60  80  80
Cookeville     61  80  63  78 /  30  50  80  90
Jamestown      59  80  61  77 /  30  50  80  90
Lawrenceburg   63  83  65  81 /  20  50  80  80
Murfreesboro   62  85  64  83 /  20  40  80  90
Waverly        63  83  63  81 /  10  60  80  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Whitehead
LONG TERM....Whitehead
AVIATION.....Cravens