Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KOHX 250111
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
811 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Sunday was a very fine day across the area. After a chilly start,
lots of sunshine warmed temperatures into 60s to lower 70s. Very
dry high pressure that brought the chilly conditions Saturday and
Saturday night had moved to the east coast allowing warmer south
winds to develop. Those winds will continue to increase, and that
will be the main wx story the next 24 hours. The pressure gradient
between the east coast ridge and a deepening low pressure over the
plains will set the stage for gusty conditions later tonight and a
Wind Advisory for Monday afternoon through Monday night. During
this time, gusts will climb into the 40-50mph range, especially
Monday evening.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms will eventually move our way
with the plains system, but that rain is expected to hold off
through most of Monday. As a result, we will have enhanced fire
danger as gusty winds and low relative humidity values combine.
Conditions will be especially dangerous east of I-65 Monday
afternoon.

We are looking for rain and some thunderstorms Monday night into
early Tuesday with rainfall totals of 0.75"-1.00" north of I-40
and 1.00"-2.00" south of I-40. Wind gusts will start to back off
gradually as we go into the late night hours Monday night, but
conditions will stay breezy through Tuesday.

The main updates for this evening include raising tonight`s low
temps thanks to mixing from the winds, bumping up highs a little
for Monday, and adjusting hourly trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1003 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

The atmosphere this morning is very dry. PWAT value from the 12Z
sounding here at OHX is a scant 0.28", which gives us a PWAT+
value of 51 (observed PWAT is just 51% of the daily mean). Despite
the cool start to the day, temperatures will warm up considerably
this afternoon as a surface ridge slides across Middle Tennessee
and winds pick up quickly from the southeast. Winds will further
increase on Monday and the inevitable Wind Advisory has already
been put in place beginning tomorrow afternoon. There may be a
few showers that sneak across the Tennessee River before sunset,
but any appreciable activity will hold off until after 00Z.
Meanwhile, fire weather concerns continue to today and tomorrow.
Today, there is a marginal fire danger across all of Middle
Tennessee owing to low afternoon RH values and increasing surface
winds. Tomorrow, the fire weather danger is restricted to areas
east of I-65, but also includes possible red flag conditions for
parts of the Cumberland Plateau.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1003 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

A strong cold front will close in on Middle Tennessee Monday
night, with widespread showers and storms developing during the
evening. Fortunately, the risk of severe storms remains very low
for Middle Tennessee. The biggest threat continues to be windy
conditions. Surface winds will peak during the overnight period,
with 850 mb winds reaching 60-80 kts by 06Z. This is expected to
translate to surface winds of 20-30 mph with gusts of 45-50 mph.
For this reason the Wind Advisory will run until 12Z Tuesday, and
could be further extended if needed on Tuesday. The showers and
storms will start to exit the mid state during the day Tuesday,
but some activity will likely linger into the evening. The actual
fropa won`t occur until Tuesday afternoon and evening, several
hours after the heaviest showers exit the region. Storm total QPF
values have decreased somewhat, and now range from a little over
1/2" near the TN/KY line to 1-2" across most areas south of I-40.
The remainder of this week and weekend come with minimal rain
chances. While cooler air will return following Tuesday`s fropa,
temperatures will warm quite nicely the remainder of the week,
with highs in 70s returning for Easter weekend. The next active
weather system probably won`t arrive until next Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

VFR conditions will continue for the taf period. Southeasterly
winds will increase through the night to 10-15 kts with gusts up
to 20-25 kts by day break. A period of wind shear is possible
after midnight through the rest of the overnight hours. Winds at
BNA/MQY/CKV will continue to increase Monday morning with
sustained winds as high as 20-25 kts by the afternoon and gusts
around 30 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      53  68  55  73 /   0  10 100  60
Clarksville    53  67  55  72 /   0  20 100  40
Crossville     42  62  48  60 /   0   0  90  80
Columbia       50  67  55  71 /   0  10 100  50
Cookeville     47  64  51  65 /   0   0  90  80
Jamestown      42  65  48  63 /   0   0  80  80
Lawrenceburg   50  66  55  70 /   0  10 100  60
Murfreesboro   50  67  53  71 /   0  10 100  70
Waverly        52  67  55  70 /   0  20 100  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for Bedford-
Cannon-Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-
Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van
Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Reagan


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.