589
FXUS64 KOUN 061151
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
651 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Added a small area of dense fog across our far southeast CWA
within an already existing area of fog extending generally east of
I-35. Visibility`s reduced between 1/2 to 1/4 of a mile in the
dense fog area. Can`t rule out a potential advisory for dense fog
by mid-morning but will hold off for now and continue monitoring
the trend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Storms will be out of our area before sunrise Tuesday morning, with
mostly sunny skies expected through the day with highs in the low
80s. Models show another shortwave moving into the plains on
Wednesday as moisture attempts to move back northward into our
southeast counties. As of now the flow is expected to veer across
much of our area through the day Wednesday, which should push the
better moisture eastward and confine any thunderstorm chances to our
eastern/southeastern counties. Instability and shear will support
severe weather with these storms, with large hail and damaging
wind gusts the main threat.

After Wednesday the synoptic pattern appears to transition to one
much less favorable for severe weather, with high pressure to our
north confining the deeper moisture well to our south into the
weekend. This should finally give our area a bit of a break,
although we will not completely dry out as rain chances (non-severe)
return to the area Saturday into Sunday.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Reduced visibilities due to fog and very low ceilings will
maintain LIFR conditions at most of our terminals at least through
14Z, after which rising stratus will improve conditions at least
to MVFR and returning to VFR conditions after 21Z. However,
expecting severe thunderstorms after 00Z could affect most of our
terminals and reducing them back to at least MVFR conditions at
least until 06Z. Surface winds will be gusty out of the south at
10-20 kts with 25-30 kt gusts. A Pacific front & dryline will
start pushing through after 00Z and start veering winds out of the
west behind the boundary with west to west-northwest winds by the
end of this forecast across our terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  79  54  81  64 /  40  50   0   0
Hobart OK         85  51  83  57 /  30  20   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  84  55  84  66 /  20  20   0   0
Gage OK           86  49  85  51 /  20  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     80  51  81  58 /  60  80   0  10
Durant OK         82  67  85  68 /  20  30   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for OKZ031-032-
     042-043-047-048-051-052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...68