349
FXUS63 KPAH 021139
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
639 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures will continue through the
  entire forecast, along with daily chances of showers and
  thunderstorms.

- Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will impact the
  Quad State late this afternoon through Friday.

- Scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and
  thunderstorms are expected over the weekend.

- Next week, a more robust convective environment will develop
  across the Quad State, leading to some potential for severe
  thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Upper ridging from the Gulf of Mexico northeast through the
Appalachians and on through the northeast will persist through
the 7 day forecast. It will at times attempt to build back
westward over the Quad State, but in general, weak southwest
flow aloft will be the rule through at least the weekend. Early
next week, the flow will increase and become more west
southwest.

At the surface, south winds will develop today and then become
light and variable tonight through much of the weekend. Early
next week, more robust southerly low-level flow will develop
over the region.

Weak disturbances in the southwest flow aloft will bring
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the region
through the weekend. The first will bring some isolated
convection to western portions of the region late this afternoon
and then more widespread convection will overspread the region
tonight into Friday. The convection could linger over the
southeast half of the area through Friday night. In general,
instability and wind fields will be weak. Very strong and deep
mixing will generate some very steep low-level lapse rates this
afternoon, so if a thunderstorm can get going in the heat of the
day, it could produce isolated gusty winds. In general, storms
tonight through Friday will be weak and short-lived.

Saturday will likely be dry for most of the region. However, there
is a small chance of showers lingering in the far southeast,
and some model guidance attempts to bring convection eastward
into southeast Missouri and southern Illinois late Saturday into
Saturday evening. Another disturbance will bring a good chance
of showers and thunderstorms to the region Sunday afternoon
through Monday. Wind fields and instability will remain
relatively weak through Monday, so any thunderstorms should be
rather weak.

For Tuesday and beyond, west southwest flow aloft will
strengthen, resulting in increased low-level southerly flow and
more robust moisture return to the Quad State. This should
create better instability and stronger wind shear by Tuesday
afternoon, which would support a better chance of severe storms
and heavy rainfall. This threat will continue through at least
next Thursday. While the general environment will be sufficient
to support a severe storm and heavy rainfall risk, confidence
in timing details is low at this time. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

South winds will gust 15-20kts at times this afternoon.
Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will spread
eastward across the TAF sites this evening through the overnight
hours. MVFR visibilities with IFR ceilings should quickly
develop after the onset of rain. TSRA was not mentioned in this
forecast due to the expected isolated coverage.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS