Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 161843
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1243 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 309 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Average confidence through the short term due to subtle model
disagreement.

A warm front just south of the region at the time of this writing
will lift northward across the area today in response to a system
moving northeast across the central plains. The approach of the
front combined with saturation in the lower troposphere will produce
low clouds and areas of dense fog this morning over all but
southwest Indiana. See the Dense Fog Advisory for additional
details.

Expect higher precipitation chances this morning mainly over the
western and northwestern sections with the passage of the warm
front. In its wake we should see improving conditions around midday,
however in the meantime precipitation chances begin to increase from
the west today with the approach of a cold front associated with the
plains system. Instability remains very limited with this system but
will slowly expand north and east through the afternoon, so will
mention thunder in those areas. Precipitation probabilities max out
area wide tonight as the front makes it about halfway across our CWA
by 6 AM Tuesday. There seems to be enough instability to mention
thunder everywhere tonight, especially over parts of southeast
Missouri and far western Kentucky where a low level jet would
enhance the shear. In its day 1 convective outlook, the Storm
Prediction Center has this area highlighted for a marginal risk of
severe weather.

As the front moves across the eastern half of our CWA Tuesday,
precipitation chances will diminish from the west accordingly. Any
instability will limited to the southeast sections of our CWA so
only mentioned thunder there in the morning.

Models now showing all precipitation south and east of our CWA
Tuesday evening and overnight. Hard to believe, but for now
Wednesday appears to be dry due to shallow moisture, a lack of upper
support, and weak surface high pressure overhead.

This little respite will be short lived however. Models now showing
the aforementioned front becoming stationary to the south of our CWA
on Wednesday. Wednesday night upper level energy lifting northeast
out of the southern plains is forecast to induce a low on the
boundary which will produce an area of overrunning precipitation.
The leading edge of the precipitation is expected to make it across
the southern half of our CWA by late Wednesday night.

With the region remaining in southwest flow through the period,
temperatures will remain well above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 309 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

The period begins with higher than average forecast confidence with
respect to the chance of precipitation Thursday into early Friday.
Over the weekend, even though models are in fairly good agreement,
confidence is just average given the potential for variations in how
models are handling a deep low pressure system as it moves into
the Mississippi Valley.

Starting with Thursday morning, the potential for rain showers will
already be increasing from south to north ahead of an upper level
low forecast to track from Baja California early in the week into
the Central Plains by mid week. The low is progged to lift northeast
into Iowa by 12Z Friday as the shortwave trough south of the low
becomes negatively tilted and pivots across the forecast area. As a
result, showers will be likely Thursday night. A few thunderstorms
are also possible given the proximity of the surface low and model
forecast of elevated instability.

Precipitation should quickly taper off in the wake of the passing
low Friday morning. This will lead to a window of dry weather Friday
afternoon through much of Saturday. Upper level energy forecast to
come ashore over California on Friday is forecast to spin up a deep
low pressure system over the Southern Plains on Saturday. This low
is progged to deepen further as it moves into the Middle Mississippi
and Lower Ohio Valleys Sunday and Monday. This will result in yet
another chance of showers as early as Saturday night and continuing
through Monday. Added a mention of thunder Sunday afternoon for
collaborative consistency, but would not be surprised if it
eventually needs to be expanded to surrounding time frames as well.

Through this entire period, unseasonably warm temperatures are
forecast. Highs should generally range through the 50s and 60s with
lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1230 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Cold front approaching from the west will move through the region
later tonight. Expecting generally IFR cigs AOB 1 kft for much of
the TAF period, tho many areas east of the MS River may break out
in VFR cigs this afternoon before more showers/isolated
thunderstorms arrive in advance of the front. Precipitation
should come to an end at all sites by 12Z Tue but higher IFR or
possibly lower MVFR conditions will probably linger through the
end of the period. Easterly winds AOB 10 knots will gradually veer
around to the southwest with the passage of the front 03Z-09Z
Tue.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$


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