893
FXUS65 KPUB 130953
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
353 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Much quieter today with isolated to scattered rain and snow
   showers in and near the mountains this afternoon through
   early evening.

 - Scattered showers expected Tuesday afternoon, with a strong
   to severe storm or two possible, with the primary hazard
   being strong outflow winds.

 - Wet pattern still expected for part of midweek, with high
   (60-79%) confidence in more widespread precipitation
   chances, and medium (40-59%) confidence in precipitation
   totals.

 - Relatively quieter weather returns for the end of the week
   and through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 349 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024

Heights aloft rise today behind the departing low pressure system to
the east.  Meanwhile, the next shortwave trough will be progressing
eastward into the northern U.S. Rockies tonight.  We sit in between
systems today which will bring much quieter weather to the region.
Temperatures rebound for most areas and stayed close to guidance and
national model blend for highs.  Did shade temperatures down a bit
for areas with fresh snow, though this should quickly melt off today
as temperatures rebound into the 50s even for these areas.
Otherwise, some northerly breezes will pick up during the day,
especially eastern areas closer to the departing system.

With afternoon heating and residual moisture in northerly flow
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will redevelop over
the mountains.  High res models push a few of these off into the
adjacent plains during the late afternoon and early evening though
diminish as they push eastward off the mountains through early
evening.  Snow levels will be much higher today (around 11kft)
limiting accumulations to an inch or two of snow under the spotty
stronger cells across the higher elevations. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 349 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024

Tuesday: Tuesday will bring another day of busy weather to south
central and southeastern Colorado. Flow will be predominantly
westerly over the region, though will become increasingly messy
throughout the day as systems associated with the sub-tropical jet
and polar jet start to approach each other and interact. With all
that said though, given the westerly flow, and increasing flow
during the day, along with modest moisture still in place, showers
are anticipated to develop across the area. The greatest coverage of
showers will be along and immediately around the mountains given the
better forcing there. Along with that, a weak front will sag
southward later in the afternoon, and this will help to initiate
showers across the eastern plains. Showers along the mountains are
expected to be light snow showers, with rain showers and
thunderstorms elsewhere. There is a concern for a strong to severe
thunderstorm or two across the San Luis Valley and eastern plains
Tuesday afternoon, with the primary hazard being strong winds
associated with downdrafts given large inverted-v thermo structures
and associated DCAPE values of 1000-1600 J/kg. As the day progresses
into the evening and instability starts to lessen, most showers
across the region will weaken and dissipate, though an isolated
light shower can`t be ruled out along the mountains overnight.
Looking at temperatures, a warm day is anticipated. Given some
downsloping winds and a late front arrival, much of the area will
warm to above seasonal temperatures for mid May.

Wednesday - Thursday: Active weather is still expected for part of
the midweek period. A complex and messy pattern will develop as the
aforementioned systems continue to interact and try to phase during
this timeframe. While this pattern is over the region, precipitation
chances will increase areawide given the dynamics and moisture in
place, which ensemble model guidance remain in good agreement on,
which continues the high (60-79%) confidence in more widespread
precipitation chances. Ensemble models are also beginning to hone in
on precipitation totals, with generally around and less than 0.75
inches of precipitation for much of the area, with a focus on the
eastern terrain features (the Rampart Range, and the Sangre de
Cristo and Wet Mountains). Given better agreement between the
ensemble model guidance, there is now at least medium (40-59%)
confidence in precipitation totals. For precipitation type, snow
showers are expected for the highest peaks of the mountains, with
rain showers and thunderstorms elsewhere. As for temperatures, a
cool down is anticipated given the unsettled pattern overhead. Much
of the area will drop to slightly below seasonal temperatures.

Friday - Sunday: For the end of the week and through the weekend,
relatively quieter weather is expected. As the messy pattern pushes
eastward, a more ridging pattern will develop behind it, which
ensemble model guidance are in decent agreement, though a bit
flatter with the ridge. Given the lack of any major forcing with
this pattern, mostly dry conditions are anticipated to prevail. The
exception to this may be along the mountains, where isolated showers
will be possible given weak orographic forcing. There are hints of
more troughing developing near the end of Sunday and into next week,
but signals are that this system will remain too far west Sunday to
be a major influence at this time. Temperatures during this period
will rebound back to warm values given the ridging in place. Much of
south central and southeastern Colorado will warm to above seasonal
values for mid May.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 349 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR conditions expected at the terminals today.  Isolated
thunderstorms will push off into the valleys and adjacent plains
with best chance for VCSH/VCTS at KCOS and KALS in the 21z to 01z
timeframe. VFR cigs with erratic gusty outflow winds will be
possible near shower activity.  Otherwise, winds will be dominated
by northerly flow once mixing takes hold later this morning, and
gust fronts from mountain convection drifts off into the adjacent
plains. VFR convective cloudiness will clear out overnight with
light diurnally driven winds expected. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...KT