Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 161057
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
557 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions today through Tuesday. Some
  significant fire weather conditions possible in south central
  Missouri on Monday.

- Sub freezing temperatures possible Monday and Tuesday
  mornings.

- Rain chances return late Wednesday into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
continues to show a high amplitude ridge axis overr the west
coast and into the Pacific northwest with a cutoff low located
over Arizona. Further east, an upper level shortwave was pushing
south into the northern plains and upper Mississippi valley
region. More westerly flow was occurring ahead of the cutoff low
across the southern plains into the southeast U.S. Surface
analysis shows high pressure from the central plains into the
mid Mississippi valley region. Temperatures across the area have
dropped into hte low to mid 40s with dew points in the low to
mid 30s.

Today: Upper level shortwave will continue to drop southeast
today with a surface cold front dropping into northern Missouri
by 00z. Another mild day is in store for the area with above
normal temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s. Some elevated
fire weather conditions will be possible with some afternoon
humidity levels dipping into the 25 to 35 percent range.

Tonight-Sunday: The front will push through the area from the
north tonight, but should come through dry. It also has a good
cold air push behind it that will take the front into the Gulf
of Mexico. Lows tonight will be in the mid 30s in the north to
the low and mid 40s in the south. Highs on Sunday will be cooler
in the low to upper 50s from north to south. Additional elevated
fire weather conditions will be possible Sunday afternoon with
afternoon humidity levels again dipping into the 25 to 35
percent range.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Sub freezing temperatures possible Sunday night and Monday
night: The cold air mass will continue to drop south into the
area Sunday night with a hard freeze expected across most of the
area in the mid 20s to around 30. The Canadian air mass will
then move over the area on Monday and south of the area on
Monday night. Sub freezing temperatures are again expected on
Monday night for most of the area with some low to mid 30s
possible over southeast Kansas into far western Missouri.

Elevated to significant fire weather conditions on Monday: Even
drier air is expected on Monday afternoon as the Canadian air
mass moves overhead. Afternoon humidity levels will dip into the
20 to 33 percent range.

Rain chances late Wednesday into Friday: The upper ridge axis
will begin to break down by the middle of the week as an upper
level system begins to move into the Pacific northwest. The
cutoff low will begin to open up and shift east into the central
and southern plains by Wednesday night with moisture beginning
to increase over the area ahead of the shortwave. Low end rain
chances start on Wednesday night(20-35%), but increase into the
40-55% chance on Thursday as the upper wave begins to move into
the area. Lower rain chances then continue into Thursday night
into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 553 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

For the 12z TAFS, some mid level cloud cover north of the area
and this should remain north of the TAF sites. Will see VFR
conditions through the period with a front moving into the area
tonight. Mid level cloud cover will increase tonight with a
light and variable wind early this morning eventually veering
around to the west today and to the north behind the front later
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg


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