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000
FXUS63 KSGF 170455
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1155 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

SLOW MOVING AND BACKBUILDING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT AND SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
CONVECTION WHICH HAS DEVELOPED THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. STILL HAVE
UNTAPPED AIRMASS NORTHWEST OF A NORTHWEST MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WHERE ML CAPES ARE STILL 2000-2500 J/KG WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. PW
VALUES ARE AROUND 1.7 INCHES IN THESE AREAS SO EXPECTING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND BACKBUILDING
STORMS TO PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES OVER THESE SAME
LOCATIONS AND GRADUALLY BUILDING WEST NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. A FEW OF THE INITIAL STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...GENERALLY AROUND WHERE THERE ARE BOUNDARY MERGERS.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER KANSAS HEADING
SOUTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR CWA TOWARDS MORNING
WHICH WILL FURTHER ADD TO HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE REGION. THE AIRMASS
REMAINS WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE. WHAT WE ARE MISSING SO FAR
TODAY IS A STRONG ENOUGH FORCING MECHANISM. A WEAK SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI HAS HELPED TO TRIGGER CONVECTION IN
AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE MO/ARK STATE LINE. OTHERWISE...THERE IS WEAK
RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS AHEAD OF STALLED MCV TURNED SHEAR AXIS
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA HEADING INTO THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 80S.

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY REMAINS MESSY. LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL END OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR...
FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. SHORT RANGE MODEL
REPRESENTATION OF SYSTEM MOTION VECTORS (BOTH REGULAR AND FORWARD
PROPAGATING VECTORS) INDICATE A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THIS
SYSTEM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASE POPS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACCORDINGLY OVERNIGHT HEADING INTO MONDAY DAYBREAK.
THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT BE MOVING ALL THAT FAST TO THE
SOUTHEAST...SO WE WILL HAVE SOME TIME TO MONITOR AND ALTER RAIN
CHANCES AS NEEDED. THIS LINE WILL POSE A LIMITED WIND RISK...AS IT
STRENGTH WILL BE DECREASING WITH TIME.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY GREATLY DEPENDS ON HOW CONVECTION IN THE
PLAINS BEHAVES TONIGHT. IF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...RAIN AND STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. CHANCES
FOR SEVERE STORMS ARE CONDITIONAL ON BEING ABLE TO DESTABILIZE.
WILL CONTINUE A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WINDS DUE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS. IF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AVOIDS THE AREA...GREATER DESTABILIZATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MONITORING MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL BE IMPORTANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

12Z SUITE OF OF MODEL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT IN HAVING THE
EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT SAG JUST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY DOES REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO
KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES DURING THE
MIDWEEK TIME FRAME...THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AND
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. INCREASING
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 20S
CORRELATE WELL TO HIGHS GETTING INTO THE LOWER AND EVEN MIDDLE
90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO HOVER AROUND THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BUILDING HIGH ALOFT WILL LIKELY PUT A LID ON
CONVECTION AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED
AT 1155 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH FROM POLK COUNTY STORMS AND
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO AND AFFECT SGF BETWEEN 05-07Z TIME FRAME AND
HAVE INCLUDED THIS WITHIN A TAF UPDATE AND THE NEW TAFS COMING OUT
FOR THE 06Z TAFS. OTHERWISE...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY CONVECTION FOR
JLN/BBG UNTIL LINEAR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX BEGINS TO ARRIVE INTO
THE AREA TOWARDS MORNING. EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
CONVECTION AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.

&&


.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...LINDENBERG
SHORT TERM...GAGAN
LONG TERM...GAGAN
AVIATION...RUNNELS