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000
FXUS63 KSGF 242313
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
613 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HOWEVER SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP IN THE PLAINS TO PROVIDE SOME
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD.

CURRENTLY..SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...LOW DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES PUSH INTO THE AREA UNDER THE RIDGE...AND
THEN WITH BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH KICKS EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OUT IN THE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. CORFIDI VECTORS
WOULD TAKE ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND
POSSIBLY INTO OUR CENTRAL MISSOURI COUNTIES BY 11-12Z TIME FRAME.
HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS UNTIL THEN AND REDUCED POPS ON SATURDAY AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT ON CONVECTION MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
THINK BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS FLATTENS A BIT AND WE GET SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF INTO THE AREA. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH BETTER CHANCES
OCCURRING NOCTURNALLY WITH ANY REMNANT MCS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO
THE AREA.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...WE SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO
NEXT WEEK.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT VEERING TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SATURDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTIVE STORMS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA COULD PRODUCE
BROKEN VFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LINDENBERG
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...GAEDE