Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 160512
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1212 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated patchy fog possible in valleys and low areas tonight.

- Elevated fire weather conditions Saturday through Tuesday.
  Some significant fire weather conditions possible in south
  central Missouri on Monday.

- Sub freezing temperatures possible Monday and Tuesday
  mornings.

- Rain chances return late Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Current conditions and synoptic overview: Surface high pressure
was building into the region today with a short wave ridge over
the plains. Cloud cover was being suppressed to the south as the
drier high pressure moves in. A cut off upper low remains over
the four corners region of the southwestern CONUS. The clearing
this afternoon was allowing temperatures to climb into the 50s
to around 60 degrees were skies have cleared and the sun is out.


For tonight into Saturday: With clearing skies, light winds,
cooling temperatures and residual surface moisture from
yesterdays rainfall, some patchy fog may develop in valleys and
low areas. Fog should not be widespread, however. The northern
jet stream in the upper level pattern will continue to dig
southeast through Saturday. Highs should climb into the mid to
upper 60s across the area. Afternoon humidity levels will fall
into the 30s and 40s thanks to high pressure and dry air which
will bring some elevated fire weather conditions to the area
during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Saturday night into Sunday: A cold front will slide south
through the region as the upper level jet remains northerly. The
ensuing cold air advection will continue with highs on Sunday
only in the middle 50s. The cold air will be accompanied by dry
air with additional elevated fire weather conditions possible.

Cold air continues into Monday night: CAA will continue behind
Saturdays front with morning lows by Monday morning in the upper
20s to lower 30s with high pressure overhead. The high will
shift east Monday night with morning lows in the middle 20s
(east) and middle 30s (West) by Tuesday morning.

Elevated to significant fire weather potential is possible
again Monday afternoon as dry conditions linger. With another
surface high moving into the area on Monday, RH values are
expected to dip into the 20-30 percent range with some gusty
winds possible around 20-30 mph.

The next chance of rainfall: Synoptic models remain dry until
the middle of next week. Current indications are for showers and
storms to develop and move across the Ozarks region Wednesday
night into Thursday. With this still a week out, models have
differing timing and coverage. Additional periods of sampling
and processing should help hone in on a better picture for the
middle to end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

For the 06z TAFS, surface high pressure will drift over the
area during the forecast period and will bring mostly VFR
conditions. Did mention a tempo group with some MVFR visibility
at BBG between 11 and 14z this morning. Light and variable winds
will veer around to the west-northwest this afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg


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