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000
FXUS63 KSGF 192102
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
402 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS REMAIN CAPPED DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS EVIDENT ON THE
20Z KSGF RAOB. AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS...BUT WERE STRUGGLING TO OVERCOME THE CAP. LIGHT RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS EAST AND MAYBE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT WILL OCCUR.

FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THE CAP HAS WEAKENED AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE DRY
LINE. THESE STORMS ARE SUPERCELLS AIDED BY SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

THE CAP WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE 20Z KSGF RAOB SHOWS VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
DEEP LEVEL SHEAR WILL STILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS EVENING. VERY LARGE
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS.

CURRENTLY LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ON THE WEAK SIDE. TORNADOES ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE WEAK SHEAR DUE TO THE VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. HOWEVER...THESE WOULD TEND TO BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE. THIS
EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
SPREADS INTO THE AREA. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
STRONG TORNADO.

THERE IS GOOD COLD POOL POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS ALLOWING THE
STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO A LINE OF STORMS. THE QUESTION IS EXACTLY
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR. CURRENTLY THINKING IS THIS WILL OCCUR NEAR
OR CLOSE TO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE A
LINE DOES DEVELOP THERE COULD STILL BE EMBEDDED MESO VORT TORNADOES
WITHIN THE LINE OF STORMS ROUGHLY WEST OF A CASSVILLE TO WARSAW
MISSOURI LINE.

TO THE EAST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AND A LINE STORMS
WILL OCCUR. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH AND WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING
WIND RISK. ALSO...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR EMBEDDED SPIN UP
TORNADOES WITH IN THE LINE WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS THAT MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE TORNADO RISK FOR THE AREA IS GOING TO GREATLY DEPEND
ON WHEN THE STORMS DEVELOP INTO A LINE.

THE GREATEST WIND RISK WILL GENERALLY BE A LONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
65 THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE
EASTERN OZARKS OVERNIGHT. THE WIND RISK WILL CONTINUE BUT WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE LINE OF STORMS WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS CONTINUE TO TAKE
SHAPE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND FLOODING.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND
BECOME ORIENTED PARALLEL WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. IT APPEARS THAT MORE
THAN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEER WILL BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY MONDAY EVENING AS A JET
STREAK COMES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. THE RISK
FOR SEVERE WILL INCREASE IF SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

PROGGED SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL
AS TRAINING CELLS. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PROLONGED SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT INCLUDING TORNADOES. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE ENHANCED ALONG AND JUST OF THE SAGGING FRONG FROM SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

IN ADDITION A RICH SUPPLY OF MOISTURE WILL INTERACT  WITH THE FRONT
TO SUPPORT TORRENTIAL RATES. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT
INTERACTING WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
STORMS THE RISK FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST BUT IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION
WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY IF ANY CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
MODELS CONTINUE SUGGEST PERIODIC CHANCES OF CONVECTION AS MINOR
DISTURBANCES COME OVER THE RIDGE BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE ARE UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

PILOTS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOPING TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...WISE
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...FOSTER