Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 121701
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1201 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer this week with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above
  normal through Thursday.

- Gusty winds today with localized elevated fire weather
  conditions mainly across the eastern Missouri Ozarks.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms return late this afternoon
  and evening. A few strong to severe storms possible.

- An active weather pattern will continue as additional storm
  chances occur Wednesday afternoon and evening then again on
  Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. There will be a risk
  for severe storms both days.

- Temperatures return near normal for mid-March on Friday and
  drier weather expected for the weekend, with below normal
  temperatures early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Surface high pressure is currently southeast of the region and
moisture return is occurring on the back side of the high and
will increase from west to east today. Therefore, there will be
a range in humidity values this afternoon with the eastern
Ozarks dropping to around 30 to 35% with values of 40 to 45%
occurring across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri this
afternoon. Some locations across south central Missouri could
drop to around 25% this afternoon if deeper mixing occurs as
moisture return will be slower further to the east today. Gusty
south to southwest winds will develop again by the mid to late
morning hours and will continue into the evening hours. Gusts
of 30 to 40 mph can be expected west of Highway 65, where the
better moisture will be, and wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph will
occur east of Highway 65 where the drier conditions will be.
Some elevated fire weather conditions will develop across the
eastern Missouri Ozarks today where the lower humidities occur
with the gusty winds.

An upper level trough will move east across the Central Plains
today then across the area this evening into tonight. Ahead of
the trough, highs will warm into the lower to middle 70s this
afternoon. An area of instability will develop across
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri as moisture returns to
the western portions of the area late this afternoon into this
evening. Models are showing 700-1200 J/kg of MLCAPE and MUCAPE
developing across this region. The cap will weaken late this
afternoon into this evening, and with lift from the trough and
an increasing low level jet, scattered storms are expected to
develop across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri late
this afternoon/early this evening then move east. Instability
and shear will support a risk for a few strong to severe storms
west of Highway 65 with hail up to the size of quarters the main
risk. The MLCIN weakens enough that a few localized damaging
winds gusts will also be possible but the overall setup is
better for small to marginally severe hail. Instability weakens
east of Highway 65, but enough should remain in place for
scattered storms to remain possible across much of the area this
evening.

The cap increases behind the shortwave and will limit storm
development overnight across much of the area, though a few
showers and storms could linger across central Missouri into the
early overnight hours before the shortwave pushes off to the
east. Lows tonight into Wednesday morning will only drop into
the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Another upper level trough will move into the northwestern CONUS
today and will dig south along west coast through mid week
closing off across the desert southwest by late this week.  The
ensemble model members continue to come into better agreement
with this system and show upper level shortwave energy pushing
into the Central Plains tonight and across the plains on
Wednesday. Surface low pressure will develop and lift north
across the plains on Wednesday and Wednesday night. A warm
front will extend east of the low and lift north across the area
on Wednesday and should lift north of the area by Wednesday
evening, but could be close to central Missouri. A cap will be
in place Wednesday morning and will limit storm potential, but
will start to weaken along the warm front in the afternoon and
evening hours. A few scattered storms will be possible along the
warm front Wednesday afternoon, then coverage should increase
Wednesday evening as the low level jet increases. The front may
still be over the northern portions of the area when the cap
begins to weaken. Will have to monitor the placement of the
warm front during the evening/overnight hours. If it sags south,
storms could clip the northern portions of the area.
Instability and shear will support a strong to severe risk
across the northern portions of the area with large hail the
main risk. The overall better severe potential Wednesday evening
and night will be northwest of the area.

South of the warm front models are showing more of a cap
as warmer temperatures will be in place in the mid levels of the
atmosphere which should limit storm development into the
overnight hours across southern Missouri. If the cap can weaken
across southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri
Wednesday evening, there would be a severe risk. Though, this
is conditional as the warmer temperatures aloft could keep a
strong enough cap in place to limit storms.

The cold front will move east across the area Thursday and
and Thursday night. Instability will increase ahead of the
front as deep layer shear also increases as the shortwave
energy moves east across the region. Storms should start to
develop along the front Thursday afternoon then move east
across the area Thursday evening and night pushing east of the
area by Friday morning. There will be the potential for severe
storms across much of the area. Large hail and damaging wind
gusts will be the main risk as the better low level shear
at this time is expected to remain south of the area. Locally
heavy rainfall will also occur with the storms and there could
be a localized flooding risk where multiple storms can move over
the same locations but widespread flooding is not expected.

The front will move east of the area on Friday and a cooler air
mass moves into the area as highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s
occur Friday and Saturday. Additional upper level energy moves
through the region Saturday night. A drier air mass will move
into the area behind the front and remain in place this week,
so not expecting much rain chances with the trough passage but
cannot rule out a few sprinkles or light rain showers Saturday
evening and night. Highs will be in the 50s on Sunday and will
only reach the 40s on Monday. Lows in the lower 30s to the
upper 20s will be possible Sunday and Monday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

VFR conditions expected through this afternoon and evening, with
low chances (20-40%) for isolated showers and thunderstorms
between 00-06Z. Confidence remains low on any of the terminals
being impacted, and is currently being depicted at KSGF with a
PROB30 group. Otherwise, expect an area of high level cirrus to
move through the area into the evening. Meanwhile, gusty
southerly winds at 20 to 30 knots through the late afternoon,
tapering off to 20 knots or less after 00Z.

For tonight, LLWS around 35 to 40 knots builds into the area
with an increasing low-level jet. Additional cloud cover with
MVFR ceilings lifts through the area on Wednesday morning. Wind
gusts of 20 knots return late in the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Perez


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