National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KSGF 130737
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
237 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING)

SPRING SEASON...WELCOME TO THE OZARKS...GLAD YOU FINALLY ARRIVED.
WELL HOPEFULLY SPRING CAN STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE...BECAUSE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...COULD MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMER.

WE START TO LOSE OUR BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SETTLES OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION WHILE SOUTHERLY
WINDS COMMENCE AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS A GOOD SET UP FOR A ROBUST
WARMING TREND THAT SHOULD LAST ALL WEEK.

THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH NO MECHANISMS EXPECTED TO
FORCE PRECIPITATION THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AT LEAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE OZARKS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE
CAN BE SEEN ON THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE BAJA
REGION.

IT`S BEEN SPINNING DOWN THERE QUITE A WHILE...AS IT`S BEEN CUT OFF
FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN STEERING CURRENT. WE HAVE TO THINK THAT
SOME FILLING HAS OCCURRED...AND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
TIME...RAISING QUESTIONS ON IT`S INFLUENCE WITH PRODUCING RAIN
DURING THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

MODELS HAVE SHOWN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL GEARED TOWARD ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
MISSOURI. WE NOTICED ON THE LATEST SUITE OF RUNS...THE QPF SIGNAL
BECAME A LITTLE LESS BULLISH.

ULTIMATELY THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY NOT
OCCUR LATER THIS WEEK...AND SOME LOCATIONS COULD REMAIN DRY. POP
TRENDS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL CERTAINLY BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR OUR
FORECASTS THIS WEEK.

REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BE WEAK
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...WHICH COULD MITIGATE STORM ORGANIZATION
AND INTENSITY. THERE WILL BE DECENT INSTABILITY WITH THE INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE. IF ANY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP...WE
THINK IT WOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED...AND LOW IN FREQUENCY.

WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES REMAIN QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE OR TWO WILL MEANDER ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...BUT THERE ALSO SEEMS TO BE A LOT OF NOISE IN
THE DATA...WHICH MAKES THE RAIN FORECAST MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.

HAVE A GREAT WEEK...AND ENJOY THE WARM SPRING WEATHER !

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH A FEW
PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CRAMER
LONG TERM...CRAMER
AVIATION...SCHAUMANN