000
FXUS63 KSGF 201619
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1119 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

CLOUDY SKIES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AFTER LAST NIGHTS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL OCCURRING JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA THOUGH A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO MAY CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOCATED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM EASTERN IOWA
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. CLOUDY
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO MUCH
FOR THE AREA. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING AND EXPECT THE
CLEARING TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.

A NUMBER OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING ARE LAID OUT ACROSS THE REGION. WHEN SKIES CLEAR AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES ITS POSSIBLE A FEW STORMS COULD TRY TO
DEVELOP ON THESE BOUNDARIES.

THE MAIN DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CLOUD ARE
CLEARING HERE AND INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND
THERE WILL BE A LARGE HAIL RISK WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK
INTO THE REGION. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH SUPERCELLS IS GOING
TO DEPEND ON IF THE CLOUDS CLEAR AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
INCREASES. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...WHICH ALSO WAS NOT REALLY AFFECTED BY LAST NIGHTS
STORMS. THESE AREAS ARE ALSO WHERE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MOST LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY DEVELOP THIS MORNING...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.

A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY AGAIN FORM TONIGHT TO OUR SOUTHWEST
AND WILL RACE ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG WINDS WOULD BE LIKELY WITH
ANY LINE THAT CAN DEVELOP WITH MU-CAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG WILL
BE IN PLACE. 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A MESOVORTICES
AND A TORNADO RISK WITH ANY LINE OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND TRACKS
TO THE EAST OR EAST NORTHEAST.

THERE COULD ALSO BE TRAINING OF STORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WHICH COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ON GOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING REMAINED THE FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST.

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS MORNING WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
THE OZARKS AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATION
THROUGH SUNRISE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR CONVECTION MAY REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING THOUGH SOME CLEARING SHOULD
OCCUR LATE IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS ANOTHER JET MAX SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AGAIN...NEGATIVELY TILTING SYSTEM. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH A SLOWLY VEERING LOW LEVEL JET TO ALLOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR QUICKLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE OZARKS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT ONCE AGAIN FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ONE CONCERN WILL BE THE
DRY LINE. IT HAS CURRENTLY RETREATED FAIRLY FAR WEST OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. WHERE THE STORMS INITIALLY DEVELOP...LIKELY AS
SUPERCELLS ONCE AGAIN...WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR EAST THE DRY LINE
MAKES IT BEFORE THE DEEP LIFT FROM THE JET STREAK AND LOW LEVEL
JET MOVES OVER THE REGION. STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS
WICHITA TO TULSA TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MISSOURI AND KANSAS STATE
LINE. THIS WILL HAVE ENORMOUS CONSEQUENCES IN WHAT TYPE OF SEVERE
WEATHER THE OZARKS WILL EXPERIENCE. SOME SHORT TERM ANN LOCAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS DEVELOP FARTHER WEST AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A QLCS OR SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED
MESOVORTICES. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT A WEAK TO MODERATE CAP
HOLDS THE STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER EAST WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT
SUPERCELLS MAY BE THE INITIAL MODE.

ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE
NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM TONIGHT CONVECTION. THIS
ALSO INCLUDES THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY THAT STORMS ARE MOVING ALONG
THIS MORNING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE STORMS WILL ULTIMATELY BEGIN
TO TRAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF TRAINING
SUPERCELLS OR HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. IN EITHER CASE...THE STORMS WILL BE WORKING WITH A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS AGAIN MONDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STORMS MOVING
OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ACROSS THE
OZARKS. THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR.

DESPITE THE TYPE OF STORMS OR THE MODE IN WHICH THEY MOVE OVER THE
REGION...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...FLOODING RAINS...AND TORNADOES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN LOOKS TO BE
FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44...BUT WITH THE DIFFERING
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS
THE ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
CONVECTION WOULD BE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO ADDITIONAL
FLOODING AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAINS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO INDICATED SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WITH A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS
REGION THIS MORNING HOWEVER...THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
AREA AERODROMES INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WILL
GIVE WAY TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS BY 14-15Z AND REMAIN VFR INTO
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
REGIONS TERMINALS AFTER 20-12Z WITH THE POTENTIAL FRO MVFR TO
PERIODS OF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WILL MONITOR THE LATEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MODIFY THE FLIGHT
FORECAST AS NEEDED WITH THE LATEST INFORMATION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...WISE
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...HATCH