Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 171108

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
508 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

...Unseasonably Warm Today into Early Next Week...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 130 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

The warming trend will continue today with temperatures well above
normal. Southerly winds and upper level ridging will push
temperatures into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The continued dry
and breezy conditions will result in an elevated fire weather
risk but conditions will not be as critical as Thursday.

An upper low will move from west Texas across the Red River Valley
tonight. Moisture advection of ahead of this system will result in
an increase in clouds later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 130 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

The upper low will make its way across the Ozarks region on
Saturday as it weakens. Expect a mostly cloudy sky Saturday. Some
patchy drizzle or a few light showers cannot be ruled out across
southern Missouri but dry weather will be the rule. Despite the
clouds temperatures will remain rather warm.

The unseasonably warm weather will continue Sunday as an upper
level ridge builds back over the region. Most locations will climb
well into the 70s.

The next upper level trough and a Pacific front will approach
Sunday night into Monday. Scattered showers will accompany this
system. Modest instability may be enough to support a few
thunderstorms Monday.

The warm weather will continue into the middle of next week as a
more zonal pattern evolves. The next system of interest and
potential for active weather will approach the region toward the
end of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 458 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals today and
tonight. Gusty southwesterly winds will persist at the surface
with low level wind shear this morning. Clouds will increase
tonight with lowering ceilings possible by early Saturday morning.


Issued at 130 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

We may approach record high temperatures the next few days and
especially Sunday.

Record Highs/YearFeb 17th Feb 18thFeb 19th
Springfield 73/191174/194871/2004
West Plains 77/1986 77/198673/1981




LONG TERM...Foster
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