Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
000
FXUS63 KSGF 181053
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
553 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated fire weather conditions will continue to occur each
day during the late morning into the early evening hours
through Tuesday.
- Sub freezing temperatures are forecast for this morning into
and again tonight into Tuesday morning.
- Rain chances return late Wednesday into Thursday night.
Rainfall amounts will overall be light and some locations may
remain dry.
- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances will be possible
late in the upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper analysis show an upper level ridge axis over the
Pacific northwest folding over with a cutoff low remaining over
eastern Arizona. Northerly flow out of the Canadian plains
continues to drive a cold air mass into the northern and central
plains into the upper and middle Mississippi valley regions.
Surface high pressure was centered over the northern high
plains. Temperatures across the area were ranging from the upper
20s to mid 30s with many areas already at or below freezing.
Today through Tuesday: High pressure at the surface will
continue to dive south into the area today. Gusty winds are
expected to develop this morning and continue into the afternoon
with some wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible. Very dry
conditions are also expected with afternoon humidity levels
dipping into the 20 to 30 percent range which will bring about a
widespread area of elevated fire weather conditions from late
morning into the early evening.
The surface high will be over the area this evening with winds
diminishing and a clear sky. Temperatures are expected to again
dip below freezing for most of the area, with the coldest
temperatures in the low to mid 20s over the eastern Ozarks.
On Tuesday, the pressure gradient will tighten up with the
Canadian air mass to our south. We`ll see southerly winds with
some gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Humidity levels in the afternoon
will dip into the 25 to 35 percent range bringing another day
with elevated fire weather concerns. Sunshine and southerly
winds will help temperatures rise back into the mid 60s to low
70s for highs.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
The closed upper low in the desert southwest will gradually
begin to shift eastward and eventually begin to open up late
Wednesday as it pushes east into the central and southern high
plains. The bulk of the energy and moisture will remain to our
south and will keep the best precipitation and rainfall amounts
south of the CWA. We will see some scattered showers and
possibly an isolated non-severe thunderstorm Wednesday night
into Thursday night as this feature shifts east into the region.
Temperatues should cool back into the upper 50s to low 60s by
Thursday with the added cloud cover and rain chances.
Another storm system will begin to push inland on Saturday with
low pressure developing in the plains by Saturday night into
Sunday. Shower and thunderstorm chances(25-50%) will return for
Saturday night into Sunday, although the are some model
differences that will need to be resolved for
timing/strength/amounts.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
For the 12z TAFS, VFR conditions are expected through the
period as surface high pressure continues to push into the
region. Some gusty northerly winds are expected this morning
into the afternoon before diminishing during the evening.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg