Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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598 FXUS63 KSGF 292332 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 632 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some flooding persists across the area from the several days of repeated heavy rain. - Additional thunderstorm chances start to move back into the area Tuesday night. - The unsettled weather pattern will persist into the weekend with additional thunderstorm chances...the potential of severe weather...and more flooding. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show the upper low lifting northeast over Minnesota early this afternoon with the next wave pushing into the Pacific northwest region. Surface front has pushed into the far eastern CWA and some convection was refiring in a narrow band along the front over Oregon county in our far southeastern CWA. This was in an area of 500-1000 j/kg ML CAPES. Overall, not expecting a severe risk with this activity. Surface temperatures were ranging from the upper 60s to low 70s with dew points in the upper 40s to mid 50s behind the front and the low 60s along and ahead of the front. Ongoing flooding: The repeated rounds of heavy rain over the past 5 days which brought widespread areas of 3 to 5 inches of rain, and a more significant area of 7 to 10 inches of rain has caused some flooding to occur over many of the area creeks and rivers along with low lying areas. The hardest hit areas still have rivers in the moderate to major flooding category, some of which will persist over the next few days and possibly longer given the forecast outlook. Tonight: The cold front will slowly work its way through the remainder of the CWA during the rest of the afternoon into the early evening with scattered convection continuing over mainly Oregon county until the front clears the area. High pressure will continue to push in behind the front with a light and variable wind and clear sky overnight. With a saturated ground from the recent heavy rain, we could see some fog develop, especially closer to the frontal boundary over far southern Missouri into south central Missouri and will include some fog chances there. Lows tonight are expected in the low to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night: Much of the day Tuesday should remain dry. High pressure over the area tonight will shift east of the area on Tuesday with a southerly low level flow beginning again which will draw moisture back into the area. The main upper level storm track will remain northwest of the area over the northern plains, however a front will push into the plains on Tuesday and then our western CWA on Tuesday night. CAPE/Shear combos during the afternoon do favor some convection developing to our west during the afternoon with the potential of severe storms. Some remnant storms will be possible Tuesday night which will affect mainly our western CWA. This does include a marginal risk of severe storms(level 1/5) and also would bring some heavy rain to areas already flooding so it will also carry a risk of excessive rainfall. Some lingering convection will be possible into Wednesday Unsettled conditions Wednesday night through the weekend: The active weather pattern looks to persist at least into the upcoming weekend. While the main upper energy and jet stream will be to our north and west, we`ll likely see convection develop in the plains and drift into at least the western CWA. A frontal boundary looks to push through Thursday into Thursday night which will offer the most widespread chances of convection to the area(60-85%). With it will come the chance for heavy rain, flooding, and some stronger to possibly severe storms. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 The combination of surface high pressure and upper level zonal east to west flow will bring VFR flight conditions and generally light winds to the region through the next 24 hours. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Hatch