109
FXUS63 KSGF 280542
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1242 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant and dangerous severe weather is expected tonight
  in areas along and west of Highway 65. Greatest potential is
  focused along and west of I-49 where tornadoes (potentially
  EF2+)...hail to the size of baseballs...and wind gusts up to
  70 mph are all possible.

- Significant and dangerous flooding is expected in areas along
  and west of Highway 65 as additional heavy rain impacts the
  area this evening into Sunday morning. A Flood Watch is in
  effect from 7PM Saturday to 1PM Sunday.

- Strong to severe weather and additional flooding is expected
  again Sunday into Sunday night.

- The unsettled pattern continues with additional storm chances
  mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Upper analysis and
water vapor imagery show a broad trough over the great basin and
southwest U.S. with a closed low centered roughly over the 4
corners region. Broad southwesterly flow continues out ahead of
the low and into the central U.S. A well defined surface front
was located from northeast of a low in the OK panhandle into
northeast Kansas and northeast Iowa with mid 60s dew points in
the warm sector south of the low. A dryline extended south of
the low west Texas. Convection has developed in the warm sector
over western OK into south central KS and also along the
frontal boundary in central into northeast KS.

Tonight: 18z sounding still shows an inversion from around 800mb
to 750mb. Still some decent elevated instability above the
inversion layer with 1000-1500 j/kg. CAMS are suggesting some
scattered convection over the area this afternoon and early
evening over the eastern CWA. Large hail and damaging winds
would be the main risk with any initial development in our east.
Later this evening and overnight, the convection which is
currently developing to our west is expected to move into the
western CWA. Supercells will be possible initially with very
large hail to the size of baseballs, damaging wind gusts up to
70 mph and a few strong tornadoes possible. Overnight, this
activity will likely form into a thunderstorm complex, with all
modes of severe weather still possible. Very heavy rainfall is
expected with PW values of 1.2" to 1.7" over the area. Storms
will likely train from southwest to northeast with repeated
heavy rain over the same area. Unfortunately, this will be the
same areas which have received heavy rain and flooding the past
2 days. Several inches of additional rain are expected in the
western CWA which will likely lead to additional flooding and
potentially significant flooding. Several rivers are already in
moderate flood stage and there continues to flooding from the
previous 2 days of heavy rain. A flood watch is in effect from 7
pm this evening through 1 pm Sunday.

Sunday and Sunday night: A thunderstorm complex will continue
to push east across the area Sunday morning. The main upper
trough axis and surface front will still be west of the area. If
sufficient destabilization can occur behind the thunderstorm
complex on Sunday afternoon, then additional strong to severe
thunderstorm redevelopment will be possible as the upper wave
pushes to the northeast. If convection does redevelop, it would
then push east across the area during the afternoon and evening
hours. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main risks,
with tornadoes still possible. Heavy rain and flooding will also
be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

The convection should push southeast of the area on Monday with
high pressure moving into the area. Moisture will begin to lift
back north into the area by mid to late week with shower and
thunderstorm chances increasing again in the Wednesday to
Friday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR conditions will gradually deteriorate through the TAF
period, beginning with JLN. A line of strong to severe
thunderstorms is likely (80-90% chance) to impact all TAF sites,
dropping ceilings to at least MVFR. Rain within these storms may
be heavy at times. The best chance for the line of storms to
move through is between 07-11Z for JLN and 08-13Z for SGF/BBG.
Wind gusts up to 70 mph will be possible with this line of
storms. Hail up to the size of golf balls and a tornado or two
also cannot be ruled out. After the initial line clears out,
there will be some lingering scattered showers before another
line of severe thunderstorms is expected to develop after 22Z.
Wind gusts up to 60 mph will also be possible with these storms.

Besides the heavy rain/thunderstorms, winds will remain
southerly, sometimes gusting up to 25 kts, especially during the
day. A low-level jet will keep wind shear across the TAF sites
until 12Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 27:
KSGF: 67/1899

April 28:
KSGF: 68/1896

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through this afternoon for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through this afternoon for MOZ055-056-066>069-
     077>081-088>096-101>105.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Price
CLIMATE...Price