Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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443
FXUS63 KSGF 210558
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1158 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Upper level low pressure will slowly move east through northern
Texas tonight. A trough axis will extend north from this feature
through eastern Kansas/western Missouri and continue into the
western Great Lakes.

While shower/thunderstorm activity has tended to diminish
throughout the afternoon, we do expect an increase in activity
tonight for a few reasons. First off, upper level jet coupling
will develop this evening over the Missouri Ozarks. Additionally,
low and mid level convergence will also tend to increase. Thus,
shower activity should increase this evening especially along or
just east of the U.S. 65 corridor. We have maintained a mention of
isolated thunder as there may be just enough instability for a
few lightning strikes.

We will also have to watch for fog potential from late tonight
into early Tuesday morning. This would most likely occur across
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri near the back edge of the
cloud shield associated with this upper level low.

As we get into Tuesday, a few remaining showers will be possible
in the morning across the eastern Ozarks. Otherwise, we should see
a slow, but steady clearing trend from west to east throughout the
day with any fog dissipating by late morning. We will see a slight
increase in northerly winds on Tuesday with temperatures warming
into the upper 60s and lower 70s. We will have to watch
temperatures across the eastern Ozarks as that area will hang onto
clouds the longest.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Breezy southerly winds will return on Wednesday especially over
the western half of the area. Additional record warm temperatures
will be likely with highs in the middle to upper 70s. There may be
some fire weather concerns Wednesday afternoon with low humidity
values especially over southeast Kansas and extreme western
Missouri. Will maintain the mention for elevated to possibly
locally significant fire weather conditions.

Thursday will be another very warm day. A surface low pressure
will begin to develop over the Oklahoma Panhandle on Thursday
afternoon and start moving northeastward by Thursday night. Low
level moisture will be very limited Thursday night into Friday
morning as this storm system begins to get organized. There may be
the potential for an isolated shower or storm but it appears the
best chance of that will be across Central Missouri. The main mid
and upper level energy with this system will miss the Ozarks
Region to the north and east with a mostly dry front moving
through on Friday.

The weather will turn much cooler but more seasonable for late
February standards by the weekend with a zonal flow. Another fast
moving mid level wave will move north of the area on Sunday. This
feature could squeeze out a few sprinkles or light showers on
Sunday but again moisture will be very limited. There are
indications of possibly a little more active weather pattern and
precipitation chances from the early to middle portion of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1154 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Showers were moving to the east of the area slowly this evening.
The rain will slowly push east, with fog and low ceilings expected
to build into the area as the rain departs. Visibilities and
ceilings should fall to MVFR and occasionally IFR through sunrise.
Conditions will improve tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
There will be the potential for additional record highs through
mid week with highs in the middle to upper 70s...

Feb 20th Feb 21st Feb 22nd Feb 23rd
Springfield 77/2016 73/1935 76/1995 79/1982
Joplin 78/2016 76/1996 87/199679/1982
Vichy-Rolla 75/2016 70/199276/199581/1982
West Plains 76/2016 73/2016 74/200082/1996

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Hatch
CLIMATE...Griffin



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