Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 301136 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
636 AM CDT Sat May 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

A potent shortwave is lifting north across Arkansas this morning,
with a large area of moderate rain continuing ahead of this feature
across south central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.  While the
heavier thunderstorms have dissipated, rainfall rates of 0.15 to
0.25 inches per hour will continue through the morning across this
area, resulting in a continued flood risk.  Will continue the Flash
Flood Watch for areas east of a Branson to Lebanon to Vichy line
through early afternoon today.

A cold front slowly moving across the Plains this morning will
eventually accelerate as the aforementioned shortwave lifts
northeast, with rainfall dissipating as that front passes.  Despite
the end to the rain, low stratus/fog/drizzle will likely continue
through the night tonight across the area.  The combination of
cooler air and continued cloud cover will result in rather chilly
highs today for the western 2/3 of the forecast area, with highs in
the 60s.  The eastern Ozarks look to make it into the low 70s before
the front passes through.

As mentioned above, fog and low stratus will continue tonight over
much of the area.  Will need to closely watch the potential for
areas of dense fog, especially where stratus is able to build down
toward the higher terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

Cool temperatures will continue on Sunday, as low cloud cover
struggles to clear out.  We should start to see some clearing from
the north by afternoon, though progress will likely be rather slow.

Monday finally looks to feature a return to more pleasant
conditions, with partly to mostly sunny skies and temperatures in
the 70s. A slow but steady warming trend will then commence for the
remainder of the workweek, with temperatures warming a couple
degrees each day, eventually reaching the mid 80s by the end of the
week.  Humidity will also be on the increase through the week,
though with an upper ridge building across the region, it appears
that most, if not all, of the week will be dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

A rather unusual stretch of IFR/MVFR conditions for this time of
year is expected over the next 24 hours. Stratus is quickly
building into the region from the west behind an incoming cold
front. Northwest winds and a moist low levels will contribute to a
prolonged period of IFR this morning, with a brief improvement
ceilings to MVFR this afternoon before falling to IFR again
tonight. Will need to watch visibility as stratus build down may
contribute to periods of LIFR at JLN this morning, with such
potential at all sites overnight tonight. Rain showers should
remain east of the JLN/SGF/BBG aerodromes today, with patchy
drizzle possible tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR MOZ058-070-
     071-081>083-091-092-096>098-104>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Gagan





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