Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FGUS73 KSGF 202221
ESFSGF
MOC097-105-119-145-153-161-169-203-209-KSC021-DDHHMM-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
430 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1...

THIS SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SPRINGFIELD
MISSOURI HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA) AND INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING
RIVERS ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHITE...
OSAGE...MARMATON...SAC...GASCONADE...BIG PINEY...SPRING...ELK...
SHOAL...JAMES...NORTH FORK WHITE...ELEVEN POINT AND JACKS FORK.

THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SPRING
SEASON. THIS PREDICTION IS BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF CURRENT SOIL
MOISTURE...STREAM AND LAKE CONDITIONS...AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS SPRING.

CURRENTLY THERE IS NO RIVER FLOODING OCCURRING IN THE SPRINGFIELD
HSA...AND THERE IS ONLY PATCHY SNOW REMAINING ON THE GROUND. THERE
IS STILL ICE IN SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVER CHANNELS AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN LAKES INCLUDING TRUMAN...STOCKTON...POMME DE TERRE AND LAKE
OF THE OZARKS.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS ...

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE SPRINGFIELD HSA...WITH THE DRIEST SOILS ALONG THE KANSAS AND
ARKANSAS BORDERS. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS HAVE SEEN
LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF THEIR NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE LAST 90
DAYS.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...THERE IS NO DROUGHT ACROSS
THE SPRINGFIELD HSA...WITH ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

...STREAM FLOW AND LAKE CONDITIONS...

STREAM FLOWS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WERE BELOW NORMAL AND RANKED
IN THE 10TH TO 24TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FLOWS. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE
ALONG THE JACKS FORK...ELEVEN POINT AND UPPER MARMATON
RIVERS...WHERE STREAM FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL...IN THE 30TH TO 70TH
PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FLOWS.

AREA LAKES WITHIN THE OSAGE RIVER BASIN WERE OCCUPYING ALL OF THEIR
MULTI-PURPOSE POOLS AND ABOUT 3 TO 5 PERCENT OF THEIR FLOOD POOLS.
LAKES ALONG THE WHITE RIVER BASIN WERE OCCUPYING AROUND 95 PERCENT
OF THEIR MULTI-PURPOSE POOLS.

...STREAM FLOW OUTLOOK...

THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOOD CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THIS
SPRING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ACROSS THE
OSAGE RIVER BASIN AND TRIBUTARIES IN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.   FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE RELATED TO SPECIFIC CONVECTIVE
RAINFALL EVENTS. SPECIFIC PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND
MAJOR FLOODING FOR THE SPRING WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BELOW.

...CLIMATE OUTLOOK...

THE LATEST 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER INDICATES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD
MARCH THROUGH MAY SHOWS EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW AND NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

...SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...

DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THIS SPRING.

...LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR AREA RIVERS...

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  2/22/2014 - 5/23/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:LITTLE OSAGE RIVER
FULTON              22.0   25.0   30.0 :  60   61   43   40   <5   <5
:LITTLE OSAGE
HORTON              41.0   45.0   50.0 :  81   79   33   37   <5   <5
:MARMATON RIVER
FORT SCOTT          38.0   42.0   43.0 :  29   38    9   11    6    7
NEVADA              20.0   26.0   31.0 :  70   71   26   36    7    9
:GASCONADE RIVER
HAZELGREEN          21.0   26.0   30.0 :   9   15   <5    5   <5   <5
:BIG PINEY
FT. WOOD - EAST G    8.0   15.0   23.0 :  56   63   22   13   <5   <5
:GASCONADE RIVER
JEROME              15.0   25.0   30.0 :  28   41   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SPRING RIVER
CARTHAGE            10.0   14.0   20.0 :  22   24    7    9   <5   <5
WACO                19.0   30.0   33.0 :  21   25   <5   <5   <5   <5
BAXTER SPRINGS      14.0   22.0   30.0 :  21   25   10   14   <5    6
:SHOAL CREEK
JOPLIN              14.0   15.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ELK RIVER
TIFF CITY           15.0   20.0   25.0 :  30   37   10   16   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 2/22/2014 - 5/23/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:LITTLE OSAGE RIVER
FULTON                6.7    7.6   17.1   24.5   27.6   28.8   29.3
:LITTLE OSAGE
HORTON               32.3   33.8   42.3   43.7   45.9   47.4   48.4
:MARMATON RIVER
FORT SCOTT           14.3   16.3   29.7   35.9   38.5   41.7   43.4
NEVADA               10.1   11.9   19.6   24.0   26.8   30.2   32.2
:GASCONADE RIVER
HAZELGREEN            4.0    4.7    5.7    9.1   17.2   20.2   23.0
:BIG PINEY
FT. WOOD - EAST G     4.7    4.8    5.9   10.0   15.0   17.9   20.1
:GASCONADE RIVER
JEROME                4.8    5.7    7.6   10.7   16.0   21.1   23.1
:SPRING RIVER
CARTHAGE              3.2    4.1    4.7    6.3    9.2   13.7   14.4
WACO                  5.0    5.8    8.1   10.4   17.5   24.8   26.7
BAXTER SPRINGS        4.8    5.6    6.2    8.0   11.5   22.3   27.9
:SHOAL CREEK
JOPLIN                3.5    3.6    4.4    5.9    8.5   10.7   13.8
:ELK RIVER
TIFF CITY             5.8    6.1    7.6   10.3   16.4   20.0   21.6

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/SGF FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.

AN UPDATED SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
ON MARCH 6.

$$
TERRY











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