Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
300 PM CST Thu Mar 1 2017

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...
...River Flooding Potential Will Be Near to Below Normal This
Spring...

This Flood Outlook is for the National Weather Service Springfield
Missouri Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) and includes the Missouri
Ozarks and Southeast Kansas.

This outlook includes the following larger river systems with in the
NWS Springfield HSA...Spring...Elk...White...Shoal...James...
Osage...Little Osage...Marmaton...Sac...Gasconade...Big
Piney...Roubidoux...and Jacks Fork.

Near normal chances for minor to moderate river flooding are
expected through the Spring season over the Osage...James and
Marmaton River Basins. Over the rest of the region...below normal
chances for river flooding are expected. Flooding usually occurs
along the larger rivers in the NWS Springfield HSA due to individual
convective rainfall events.

This Flood Outlook is based on current and future streamflow and
reservoir conditions...soil moisture conditions...snow pack and
expected Spring precipitation.

Current streamflow conditions are averaging between 5 and 20 percent
of normal streamflow percentiles over the Springfield HSA, with the
exception of the Sac River Basin, where streamflow percentiles were
near normal.

All reservoirs in the White River system near the Arkansas border
are currently below their flood pool levels and have 100 percent of
their flood control pools available for storage. Lakes along and
near the Osage River have between 85 and 100 percent of their flood
pools available for excess water storage.

Soil conditions across the region are currently drier than normal.
In fact...the U.S. Drought Monitor currently has southwest...
central and portions of south central Missouri classified as
moderate drought (D1) and the rest of the region classified as
abnormally dry (D0).

There is no snowpack across the Springfield HSA and no persistent
snowpack is expected through the rest of the Winter and early
Spring.

The temperature outlook for the next three months has greater than
normal chances for above average temperatures...and equal chances
for above...below and normal precipitation.

This will be the last Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook
issued this year.

$$

Terry



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