Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FGUS73 KSGF 261926
ESFSGF
MOC097-105-119-145-153-161-169-203-209-KSC021-261926-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
226 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017


...Near to Above Normal Chances for River Flooding Across Southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks This Fall...

There will be an above normal chance for river flooding across the
Little Osage...Marmaton and Spring River Basins in southeast Kansas
and extreme southwest Missouri through this Fall. Across the
Sac...Osage...Gasconade...Big Piney...Roubidoux...Elk Rivers and
Shoal Creek...there will be a near normal chance of flooding. This is
based on Climate Outlooks and current river and soil moisture
conditions.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  09/30/2017  - 12/29/2017

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Little Osage River
Fulton              22.0   25.0   30.0 :  51   36   46   30    6    5
Horton              41.0   45.0   50.0 :  55   45   19   26   <5   <5
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott          38.0   42.0   43.0 :  26   19   15    7    8   <5
Nevada              20.0   26.0   31.0 :  56   45   26   19   16    9
:Osage River
Schell City         30.0   35.0   45.0 :  45   46    8   12   <5   <5
:Sac River
Caplinger Mills     16.0   19.0   28.0 :  31   29   23   23   <5    5
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen          21.0   26.0   30.0 :   7    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Roubidoux Creek
Waynesville          7.0   14.0   20.0 :  23   23   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Big Piney
Fort Leonard Wood    8.0   15.0   23.0 :  35   27    8    8   <5   <5
:Gasconade River
Jerome              15.0   25.0   30.0 :  19   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Spring River
Carthage            10.0   14.0   20.0 :  29   21   15    7   <5   <5
Waco                19.0   30.0   33.0 :  30   30   <5   <5   <5   <5
Baxter Springs      14.0   22.0   30.0 :  34   27   12   10   <5   <5
:Shoal Creek
Joplin              14.0   15.0   16.0 :   7    9    5    6   <5   <5
:Elk River
Tiff City           15.0   20.0   25.0 :  14   19    5    8   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 09/30/2017  - 12/29/2017
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Osage River
Fulton                3.3    4.2    8.2   24.3   27.5   29.6   30.2
Horton               26.1   27.7   33.0   42.3   44.1   47.4   47.7
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott            7.6   10.0   19.7   32.1   38.5   42.8   43.5
Nevada                3.1    5.2   12.9   22.2   26.2   32.3   34.0
:Osage River
Schell City           6.7    9.8   18.6   28.3   31.7   34.5   35.9
:Sac River
Caplinger Mills       6.2    6.2    6.7   10.6   16.4   24.8   26.6
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen            1.6    1.7    3.0    5.6   12.0   17.4   22.5
:Roubidoux Creek
Waynesville           1.0    1.0    1.0    3.6    6.9   10.1   11.2
:Big Piney
Fort Leonard Wood     2.0    2.0    3.1    5.1    9.5   14.1   17.4
:Gasconade River
Jerome                2.3    2.3    3.3    7.8   12.6   19.5   23.9
:Spring River
Carthage              3.1    3.3    4.2    6.4   10.9   15.8   17.9
Waco                  2.9    3.4    7.5   11.6   21.3   26.3   27.7
Baxter Springs        3.7    4.1    5.9    8.6   17.3   23.1   25.2
:Shoal Creek
Joplin                2.1    2.1    2.8    4.9    8.1   13.0   15.4
:Elk River
Tiff City             2.6    3.0    4.5    7.9   10.9   16.6   20.5

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 09/30/2017  - 12/29/2017
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Osage River
Fulton                3.3    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.1    3.1    3.1
Horton               25.9   25.8   25.5   25.3   25.2   25.2   25.1
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott            7.5    7.5    7.3    7.2    7.1    7.1    7.1
Nevada                2.5    2.5    2.4    2.3    2.3    2.2    2.2
:Osage River
Schell City           5.6    5.3    5.1    4.9    4.8    4.8    4.7
:Sac River
Caplinger Mills       5.0    5.0    5.0    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen            1.6    1.6    1.4    1.1    1.0    0.9    0.9
:Roubidoux Creek
Waynesville           1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0
:Big Piney
Fort Leonard Wood     1.9    1.9    1.8    1.6    1.5    1.5    1.5
:Gasconade River
Jerome                2.2    2.0    1.9    1.6    1.3    1.2    1.2

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/sgf...under the rivers and lakes tab
and experimental long range flood risk tab for more water
information.

The next outlook will be issued during the last week of October.

$$

Terry



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