Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FGUS73 KSGF 061954
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MOC097-105-119-145-153-161-169-203-209-KSC021-071800-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
150 PM CST THU MAR 06 2014

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

THIS SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SPRINGFIELD
MISSOURI HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA) AND INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING
RIVER SYSTEMS ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...WHITE...OSAGE...MARMATON...SAC...GASCONADE...BIG
PINEY...SPRING...ELK...SHOAL...JAMES...NORTH FORK WHITE...ELEVEN
POINT AND JACKS FORK.

THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SPRING
SEASON. THIS PREDICTION IS BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF CURRENT SOIL
MOISTURE...STREAM AND LAKE CONDITIONS...AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS SPRING. SNOWMELT WILL LIKELY NOT CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER
FLOODING THROUGH THE SPRING. RIVER FLOODING THIS SPRING WILL MOST
LIKELY BE CAUSED BY INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL EVENTS.

CURRENTLY THERE IS NO RIVER FLOODING OCCURRING IN THE SPRINGFIELD
HSA...AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

...RECENT SOIL MOISTURE...RAINFALL AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
SPRINGFIELD HSA. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI HAVE RECEIVED LESS THAN 30 PERCENT OF THEIR
NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE LAST 90 DAYS...AND MOST OF THE REGION HAS
ONLY RECEIVED ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THEIR NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS...MAINLY OVER
CHEROKEE AND SOUTHWEST CRAWFORD COUNTIES. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL...AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

...STREAM FLOW AND LAKE CONDITIONS...

STREAM FLOWS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WERE BELOW NORMAL AND RANKED
IN THE 10TH TO 24TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FLOWS. SEVERAL STREAMS
NORTH OF THE OZARKS PLATEAU HAD FALLEN TO BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE
OF STREAM FLOWS.

AREA LAKES WITHIN THE OSAGE RIVER BASIN WERE OCCUPYING ALL OF THEIR
MULTI-PURPOSE POOLS AND ABOUT 3 TO 5 PERCENT OF THEIR FLOOD POOLS.
LAKES ALONG THE WHITE RIVER BASIN WERE OCCUPYING 90 TO 95 PERCENT OF
THEIR MULTI-PURPOSE POOLS...WITH 100 PERCENT OF THEIR FLOOD POOL
STORAGE AVAILABLE IF HEAVY RAINS AFFECT THE REGION THIS SPRING.

...STREAM FLOW OUTLOOK...

THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOOD CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THIS
SPRING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ACROSS THE
OSAGE RIVER BASIN AND TRIBUTARIES IN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...AND A CHANCE FOR MINOR RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION. SPECIFIC PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR
FLOODING FOR THE SPRING ARE INCLUDED IN THE LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOK TABLES BELOW.

...CLIMATE OUTLOOK...

THE LATEST 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER INDICATES THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
ARE EXPECTED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MARCH...WITH EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...BELOW AND NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD MARCH THROUGH
MAY SHOWS EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

...SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...

DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THROUGH THE MONTH OF MARCH. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SPRING...DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY.

...LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR AREA RIVERS...

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE TIME PERIOD OF MARCH THROUGH EARLY JUNE.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

THIS PREDICTION IS BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF CURRENT SOIL
MOISTURE...STREAM AND LAKE CONDITIONS...AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS SPRING.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD:  3/8/2014 - 6/6/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:LITTLE OSAGE RIVER
FULTON              22.0   25.0   30.0 :  64   67   48   45   <5   <5
:LITTLE OSAGE
HORTON              41.0   45.0   50.0 :  81   77   37   34   <5   <5
:MARMATON RIVER
FORT SCOTT          38.0   42.0   43.0 :  36   34   10    9    6    7
NEVADA              20.0   26.0   31.0 :  73   71   30   32    7    7
:GASCONADE RIVER
HAZELGREEN          21.0   26.0   30.0 :   8   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BIG PINEY
FT. WOOD - EAST G    8.0   15.0   23.0 :  57   64   22   14   <5   <5
:GASCONADE RIVER
JEROME              15.0   25.0   30.0 :  24   39   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SPRING RIVER
CARTHAGE            10.0   14.0   20.0 :  24   28    8    8   <5   <5
WACO                19.0   30.0   33.0 :  24   26   <5   <5   <5   <5
BAXTER SPRINGS      14.0   22.0   30.0 :  20   24    8   12   <5   <5
:SHOAL CREEK
JOPLIN              14.0   15.0   16.0 :   5    7   <5    5   <5   <5
:ELK RIVER
TIFF CITY           15.0   20.0   25.0 :  24   37    7   17   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 3/8/2014 - 6/6/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:LITTLE OSAGE RIVER
FULTON                8.7   11.0   16.9   24.7   27.7   28.8   29.3
:LITTLE OSAGE
HORTON               35.5   39.0   42.7   44.1   46.0   47.5   48.6
:MARMATON RIVER
FORT SCOTT           17.9   20.3   31.6   36.4   39.2   41.9   43.8
NEVADA               10.5   12.5   19.3   24.7   27.4   30.3   32.5
:GASCONADE RIVER
HAZELGREEN            4.3    4.7    6.2    8.9   16.0   19.3   22.6
:BIG PINEY
FT. WOOD - EAST G     4.2    4.8    6.0   10.2   14.3   17.9   19.1
:GASCONADE RIVER
JEROME                4.3    5.2    7.8   10.7   14.5   19.6   21.4
:SPRING RIVER
CARTHAGE              3.1    4.1    4.9    5.8    9.8   13.7   14.5
WACO                  4.9    6.1    7.8   10.4   18.7   23.8   26.5
BAXTER SPRINGS        4.6    5.1    6.3    7.9   11.0   21.2   24.9
:SHOAL CREEK
JOPLIN                2.3    2.8    4.0    5.1    6.8    8.9   14.9
:ELK RIVER
TIFF CITY             5.3    5.8    7.4   10.2   15.0   18.7   21.4

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE (AHPS).

VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/SGF FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THIS YEAR.
UPDATED LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS WILL BE AVAILABLE NEAR
THE END OF MARCH.

$$
TERRY






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