Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FGUS73 KSGF 291507
ESFSGF
MOC097-105-119-145-153-161-169-203-209-KSC011-021-031200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Springfield MO
900 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook...

This flood outlook is for the NWS Springfield service area covering
far southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. It covers the time
period for early March through May, 2024.

...Flood Outlook Highlights...

* The risk of minor, moderate and major flooding is near to below
  normal at all locations.

* It is important to continue monitoring weather and river
  conditions--as well as future outlooks--for any changes to the
  flood threat. Future weather--including amount, frequency and
  extent of precipitation as well as rate of snowmelt--can be big
  factors in any potential spring flood threat.

* Maps and graphics concerning the risk of flooding are available on
  the NWS Springfield Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Web page
  at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=sgf. On that page
  click on the tab above the map labeled Long-Range Flood Risk.

This outlook provides long-range probabilistic river outlooks for
river basins in the NWS Springfield service area. This outlook is
divided into three parts--the first part for the probabilities of
minor, moderate and major flooding, the second part for high water
and the final part for low water.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/02/2024  - 05/31/2024

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Little Osage River
Fulton              22.0   25.0   30.0 :  56   61   41   47   <5   <5
Horton              41.0   45.0   50.0 :  76   84   21   31   <5   <5
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott          38.0   42.0   43.0 :  23   29   12   13    9   11
Nevada              20.0   26.0   31.0 :  62   79   32   46   12   13
:Osage River
Taberville          23.0   34.0   46.0 :  37   54   13   15   <5   <5
:Sac River
Caplinger Mills     16.0   19.0   28.0 :  48   51   40   47   11   13
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen          21.0   26.0   30.0 :  19   26    9   18    5    9
:Roubidoux Creek
Waynesville          7.0   14.0   20.0 :  24   47    6    9   <5   <5
:Big Piney
Fort Leonard Wood    8.0   15.0   23.0 :  54   82   18   36    6    8
:Gasconade River
Jerome              15.0   25.0   30.0 :  27   47   13   21    6    8
:Spring River
Carthage            10.0   14.0   20.0 :  25   30    9    9   <5   <5
Waco                19.0   30.0   33.0 :  29   34   <5   <5   <5   <5
Baxter Springs      14.0   22.0   30.0 :  23   30    9   12   <5   <5
:Shoal Creek
Joplin              11.5   16.0   18.0 :   8   16    5    6   <5   <5
:Elk River
Tiff City           15.0   20.0   25.0 :  14   24    6    9   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/02/2024  - 05/31/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Osage River
Fulton                6.1    7.3   15.3   23.0   27.1   28.0   29.2
Horton               35.3   36.5   41.1   43.1   44.3   47.5   48.6
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott           10.5   12.7   22.4   32.6   38.0   42.8   43.7
Nevada                4.4    7.1   13.4   23.9   27.4   32.3   35.7
:Osage River
Taberville           12.0   13.3   17.0   21.3   24.5   35.1   38.6
:Sac River
Caplinger Mills       7.2    7.3    8.9   15.0   23.2   28.5   29.6
:Spring River
Carthage              3.5    3.9    4.7    6.8   10.1   13.9   16.6
Waco                  2.9    4.3    9.0   12.9   20.5   25.3   27.1
Baxter Springs        3.6    4.9    6.4    9.5   13.2   21.9   25.9
:Shoal Creek
Joplin                2.1    2.1    4.4    5.9    7.9   10.2   16.6
:Elk River
Tiff City             3.8    4.8    6.6    9.0   13.1   15.9   22.2

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/02/2024  - 05/31/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Osage River
Fulton                3.4    3.3    3.3    3.2    3.1    2.9    2.9
Horton               28.8   28.6   28.1   27.8   27.4   27.1   27.0
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott            7.3    7.3    7.2    7.1    6.7    6.6    6.6
Nevada                2.4    2.4    2.3    2.2    2.0    2.0    1.9
:Osage River
Taberville            8.8    8.8    8.8    8.8    8.8    8.8    8.8
:Sac River
Caplinger Mills       5.1    5.1    5.1    5.1    5.1    5.1    5.1

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/sgf for more weather and water
information.

...Current Conditions as of February 29th, 2024...

* River Levels...River levels were running generally near to below
  normal.

* Soil Moisture...Soil moisture was running below to much below
  normal.

* Drought Conditions...Generally, Moderate Drought (D1) conditions
  existed across the northeast and Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions
  existed across much of the rest of the area. A few locations across
  far southern Missouri were not in drought conditions.

$$

Titus


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