Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FGUS73 KSGF 161842

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1245 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...
...River Flooding Will Be Near to Below Normal This Spring...

This Flood Outlook is for the National Weather Service Springfield
Missouri Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) and includes the Missouri
Ozarks and Southeast Kansas.

This outlook includes the following larger river systems with in the
NWS Springfield HSA... Spring...Elk...White...Shoal...James...
Osage...Little Osage...Marmaton...Sac...Gasconade...Big
Piney...Roubidoux...and Jacks Fork.

Near normal chances for minor to moderate river flooding are
expected through the Spring over the Osage and Marmaton River
Basins. Over the rest of the region...below normal chances for river
flooding are expected. Flooding may occur along the larger rivers in
the NWS Springfield HSA due to individual convective rainfall

The Flood Outlook is based on current and future streamflow and
reservoir conditions...soil moisture conditions...snow pack and
expected Spring precipitation.

Current streamflow conditions average between 10 and 30 percent of
normal streamflow percentiles all but the northwest portion of the
Springfield HSA. Within the Osage River Basin, streamflow
percentiles were near normal.

All reservoirs in the White River system near the Arkansas border
are currently below their flood pool levels and have 100 percent of
their flood control pools available for storage. Lakes along and
near the Osage River have between 85 and 100 percent of their flood
pools available for excess water storage.

Soil conditions across the region are currently drier than normal.
In fact...the U.S. Drought Monitor currently has the region
classified as abnormally dry. Over south central Missouri...moderate
drought conditions were occurring.

There is no snowpack across the Springfield HSA and no persistent
snowpack is expected through the rest of the Winter and early

The temperature outlook for the next three months has greater than
normal chances for above average temperatures...and equal chances
for above...below and normal precipitation.

An updated Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook will be issued
on March 1.



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