Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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059
FNUS73 KSGF 011420
FWSSGF

SPOT FORECAST FOR 19 PINE RX...USDA - FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
820 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CST ON FEBRUARY 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
EASTERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS CAUSING
A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS (GENERALLY AROUND 10-20MPH). OVERALL
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 35-40
PERCENT RANGE. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ALLOWING
FOR WINDS TO EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........48 AT IGNITION...MAX 58.
RH..................50 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 36 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH
                    THROUGH THE DAY.
WIND SHIFT..........EAST TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1000-2900
                    FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 16 TO 25 MPH.

TIME (CST)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........42  44  44  43  43  45  48
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............48  52  55  57  58  56  54
RH..............50  46  44  38  36  42  48
20 FT WIND DIR..E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..10  10  10  12  12  13  15
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  15  18  18  18
CHC OF PCPN (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 47.
RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WIND SHIFT..........
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 28 TO 37 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 38 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........50     76     86     92     97     98
WEATHER COV.....                     LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........                     CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP............51     47     47     48     49     50
RH..............56     65     74     80     86     93
20 FT WIND......E 6    E 8    SE 9   SE 9   SE 9   SE 9
20 FT WIND GUST.15     20     25     20     20     20
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      10     10     60     60     60
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      3      3      3

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 63.
RH..................MIN 37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.
WIND SHIFT..........
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4800-6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 39 TO 45 MPH.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........98     94     77     29     23     24
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP............51     54     58     61     63     60
RH..............96     93     75     53     39     37
20 FT WIND......SE 9   S 10   S 10   SW 9   SW 10  SW 12
20 FT WIND GUST.20     25     25     30     30     30
CHC OF PCPN (%).60     60     60     20     20     20
HAINES INDEX....3      4      4      4      4      3

$$
FORECASTER...FRYE
REQUESTED BY...GREG PAINTER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160201.19PIN.01/SGF



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