Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FNUS73 KSGF 231357
FWSSGF

SPOT FORECAST FOR ROBY LAKE UNIT A...USDA - FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
857 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MARCH 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AT THE BURN SITE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD FALL TO BETWEEN 50 AND 55 PERCENT BY
AFTERNOON...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S.  WINDS TODAY
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT, WITH VARIABLE DIRECTIONS THIS MORNING
BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY BETTER CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ADDITIONAL CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62 AT IGNITION...MAX 68.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 54 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 6 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN
                    BECOMING WEST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING
                    AND AFTERNOON.
WIND SHIFT..........SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PRECIP....10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...MAXIMUM 2100 FT AGL
                    INCREASING TO 2600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 23 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............62     64     66     66
RH..............60     59     56     57
20 FT WIND......SW 5   W 6    W 5    W 4
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     5
MIX HGT (FT)....1300   2600   2100   1900
TRANSPORT WIND..W 21   W 18   W 17   W 15
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     10     10     10
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING AND
                    OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 49.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 89 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING
                    AND OVERNIGHT.
WIND SHIFT..........WEST BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE.
CHANCE OF PRECIP....20 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....N/A.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....              S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............65     61     57     55     53     52
RH..............60     70     79     82     86     88
20 FT WIND......W 3    NW 2   E 2    SE 3   SE 4   SE 4
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5      5      10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....2100   1800   1000   700    600    600
TRANSPORT WIND..W 15   W 13   S 12   SE 10  SE 13  S 18
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     10     20     20     20     20
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      3      3      3

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 51 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 18
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
WIND SHIFT..........NONE.  GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCE OF PRECIP....40 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000 FT AGL EARLY IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 25 TO 33 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 36
                    TO 41 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............51     53     56     61     67     71
RH..............90     90     86     74     58     51
20 FT WIND......SE 5   S 6    S 9    S 10   S 14   S 14
20 FT WIND GUST.10     15     20     25     30     30
MIX HGT (FT)....600    500    700    1700   2600   3000
TRANSPORT WIND..S 25   S 30   S 32   S 32   S 36   SW 39
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     30     40     40     40     50
HAINES INDEX....4      5      5      5      5      4

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE
                    EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 49.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 63 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 16 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
WIND SHIFT..........NONE.  GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCE OF PRECIP....70 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 43 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............68     63     61     56     54     53     52     53     56     64     67     70
RH..............54     66     73     78     80     81     79     75     68     55     50     46
20 FT WIND......S 12   S 9    S 7    SW 5   SW 4   SW 3   SW 3   S 3    S 5    S 6    S 8    S 8
20 FT WIND GUST.25     20     15     10     10     5      5      5      10     15     20     15
MIX HGT (FT)....2900   2100   900    700    600    500    500    400    500    1600   3100   4300
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 43  SW 41  W 37   W 30   W 25   SW 22  SW 20  S 20   S 20   S 22   S 25   SW 30
CHC OF PCPN (%).50     70     70     70     20     20     20     20     20     20     50     50
HAINES INDEX....3      3      4      5      5      4      5      5      5      5      4      3

$$
FORECASTER...BOXELL
REQUESTED BY...GREG PAINTER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150323.ROBYL.01/SGF






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