Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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027
FNUS73 KSGF 151442
FWSSGF

Spot Forecast for Roby Lake Rx Unit A...US Forest Service - USFS
National Weather Service Springfield MO
842 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CST on February 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at 1-800-762-4363, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Southwest winds will remain very gusty and erratic for the morning and afternoon
hours with some gusts approaching 40 mph. Mid to high level clouds will move
through the area today however sufficient mixing should occur and confidence
is high in the forecast RH and temps for Today. A strong cold front will move
through Tonight bringing a chance of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers early in the morning.
TEMPERATURE.........64 at ignition...Max 77.
RH..................78 percent at ignition...Min 43 percent.
DEWPOINT............56 decreasing to 52 during mid and late
                    afternoon.
APPARENT TEMP.......77.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....Southwest winds 9 to 17 mph.
WIND SHIFT..........
WIND (20 FT)........Winds southwest at 15 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southwest winds 9 to 17
                    mph. Gusts up to 20 mph during mid morning
                    increasing to 35 mph, then decreasing to 25 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 900-2800 ft
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....Southwest 23 to 31 mph increasing to 35 to 39
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon, then
                    decreasing to around 29 mph late in the
                    afternoon decreasing to around 18 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....Good /48300 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /63900 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    good to excellent (59900-91000 knot-ft) in the
                    late morning and afternoon, then decreasing to
                    good (38500 knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....Good /48300 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /63900 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    good to excellent (59900-91000 knot-ft) in the
                    late morning and afternoon, then decreasing to
                    good (38500 knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 6.

TIME (CST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........27  35  56  80  83  76  75  92  92
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............64  68  71  74  76  76  77  75  73
DEWPOINT........57  56  56  55  54  53  53  53  52
RH..............78  65  59  51  46  45  43  46  48
APARNT TMP (F)..64  68  71  74  76  76  77  75  73
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..12  13  14  14  14  14  13  12  11
20 FT WIND GUST.30  30  30  30  35  35  30  30  25
EYE LVL WND DIR.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
EYE LVL WND SPD.9   10  10  10  10  10  10  9   8
EYE LVL WND GST.30  30  30  30  35  35  30  30  25
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.6 2.0 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.35  36  36  36  38  39  37  29  18
HAINES INDEX....6   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRATE KT-FT/100048  64  78  87  91  88  77  60  39
SDSPL KT-FT/100048  64  78  87  91  88  77  60  39

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the evening. Rain showers
                    likely through the night. Chance of snow
                    showers after midnight.
TEMPERATURE.........Min 31.
RH..................Max 82 percent.
DEWPOINT............49 decreasing to 31.
APPARENT TEMP.......27.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....North winds 7 to 14 mph.
WIND SHIFT..........
WIND (20 FT)........North winds 7 to 14 mph with gusts to around 25
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the evening.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-2300 ft AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....North 8 to 17 mph increasing to 20 to 23 mph.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....Fair to good (13500-34600 knot-ft).
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....Fair to good (13500-34600 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........85  87  90  98  98  98  98  99  99  99  99  99
WEATHER COV.....    CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RS
TSTM COV........    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP............67  65  63  61  58  55  51  48  44  41  38  36
DEWPOINT........51  51  50  49  47  44  43  40  36  34  32  31
RH..............56  60  62  65  67  66  74  74  73  76  79  82
APARNT TMP (F)..67  65  63  61  58  55  51  42  37  33  29  27
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD..10  8   6   5   6   8   10  10  10  10  10  9
20 FT WIND GUST.20  20  15  15  15  20  20  25  25  25  20  20
EYE LVL WND DIR.SW  W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N
EYE LVL WND SPD.7   6   4   4   4   6   7   8   8   8   7   7
EYE LVL WND GST.20  20  15  15  15  20  20  25  25  25  20  20
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW  W   NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N
TRANSP WIND SPD.10  8   8   10  13  15  17  20  22  23  22  21
HAINES INDEX....4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   3   3
VRATE KT-FT/100021  14  14  15  17  21  26  29  31  33  34  35
SDSPL KT-FT/100021  14  14  15  17  21  26  29  31  33  34  35

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
TEMPERATURE.........Max 38.
RH..................Min 38 percent.
DEWPOINT............27 decreasing to 16.
APPARENT TEMP.......21.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....North winds 5 to 10 mph.
WIND SHIFT..........
WIND (20 FT)........North winds 5 to 10 mph.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3200 ft AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....North 13 to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 9
                    to 10 mph late in the afternoon.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....Fair to good (23100-38500 knot-ft).
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....Fair to good (23100-38500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........98  98  97  96  85  73  62  50  38  27  30  34
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............34  32  31  30  31  32  34  36  37  38  37  35
DEWPOINT........29  26  24  22  21  20  18  17  16  15  14  14
RH..............82  78  75  72  66  61  51  45  42  38  38  41
APARNT TMP (F)..26  24  22  21  22  24  26  29  30  32  32  30
20 FT WIND DIR..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD..7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   4
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10  10  10      5
EYE LVL WND DIR.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
EYE LVL WND SPD.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   3
EYE LVL WND GST.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10  10  10      5
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.20  20  20  20  18  17  16  15  15  13  10  9
HAINES INDEX....4   3   3   2   2   2   3   3   4   4   4   4
VRATE KT-FT/100035  35  36  36  36  36  36  38  39  35  30  23
SDSPL KT-FT/100035  35  36  36  36  36  36  38  39  35  30  23

$$
Forecaster...BURCHFIELD
Requested by...MIchael Kelly
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1801999.0/SGF
.EMAIL rebray@fs.fed.us



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