Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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105
FNUS73 KSGF 311349
FWSSGF

SPOT FORECAST FOR BRUSHY...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
749 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CST ON JANUARY 31.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. VARIABLE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...AND WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LACKING RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY ARE VERY
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGING TODAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INDICATE ANOTHER DAY OF DECENT
WARMING. THE PRESENCE OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DUE CALL INTO
QUESTION JUST HOW MUCH WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER OUTCOME THOUGH UPDATES MAY BE NECESSARY
BASED ON HOW TEMPERATURES RESPOND THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
COMPLICATION TODAY WILL BE A WIND SHIFT BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........62 AT IGNITION...MAX 69.
RH..................61 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 8 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10
                    MPH.
WIND SHIFT..........BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 6.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 900-2800 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 3200-3400 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 24 TO 33 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST 21 TO 22 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CST)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........63     62     70     77
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............62     68     68     64
RH..............61     49     47     48
20 FT WIND......SW 6   SW 8   W 6    W 6
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     15     10
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      10     10     10
HAINES INDEX....4      3      3      3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 38.
RH..................MAX 85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH BECOMING LIGHT.
WIND SHIFT..........
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-3000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-1000 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 14 TO 23 MPH.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........89     78     73     68     55     50
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............56     51     48     45     43     40
RH..............62     68     71     76     76     82
20 FT WIND......NW 5   N 5    N 5    N 4    N 4    N 4
20 FT WIND GUST.10                   5      5      5
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      3      3      4

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 55.
RH..................MIN 49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WIND SHIFT..........
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600-3200 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 29
                    MPH DURING MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........47     51     48     36     46     54
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............38     39     44     51     55     54
RH..............85     79     68     54     49     50
20 FT WIND......NE 3   E 4    E 5    E 5    E 6    E 6
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5             10     10     15
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
HAINES INDEX....5      4      4      4      3      3

$$
FORECASTER...GAGAN
REQUESTED BY...REGGIE BRAY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160131.BRUSH.01/SGF



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