Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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751 FXUS64 KSHV 071955 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 255 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Active weather will continue across the Four State Region through the rest of the week with above average temperatures. This is due to prolonged southerly surface winds maintaining moist air inflow combined with mostly wet antecedent soils downstream, keeping dew points in the lower 70s. Temperature maximums/minimums will reach the lower 90s/lower 70s as a result. Precipitation will remain possible through most of the rest of the week due to a lingering frontal boundary that serves to focus thunderstorm activity and key atmospheric ingredients for severe thunderstorms (large hail/damaging winds possible) into a corridor across northeast Texas into southern Arkansas on Wednesday afternoon/evening. Uncertainty remains with the spatiotemporal details of Wednesday`s convection and its magnitude across the area, according to the latest high-resolution guidance, while Thursday afternoon convection will occur further south of the I-20 corridor. /16/ && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Frontal passage by the end of the week will provide a break in active weather and above average temperatures through the weekend before precipitation chances return next week. This is due to quasi-zonal flow aloft with a weak cutoff low drifting east in that flow across the Four Corners into the Southern Plains. This low will continue to slowly drift over drier air as surface ridging traverses the Intermountain West, finally introducing northerly winds and seasonable temperatures (maximums in the lower 80s/minimums in the mid-60s) by Friday. Surface ridging will quickly begin to shift east across the Mississippi River by Sunday, reintroducing southerly surface winds and precipitation chances by early next week. /16/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Cigs have lifted/become low VFR across the region early this afternoon to start the 18Z TAF period, with some scattering of these cigs expected by mid and late afternoon across E TX/N LA/SW AR, which should linger through much of the evening. However, low MVFR cigs are expected to redevelop by mid to late evening over Deep E TX and Cntrl LA, spreading N to encompass the remainder of the region between 06-09Z. In fact, IFR cigs are possible overnight across the region, with a return of MVFR cigs expected by mid-morning, and VFR not returning until the end of the TAF period. Isolated to scattered convection may develop over portions of extreme NE TX into SW AR late this evening through a portion of the overnight hours, but low confidence precludes mention in the TXK/ELD TAF`s attm. SSW winds 8-12kts this afternoon, with occasional gusts to 20kts, will become S and diminish to 6-10kts after 00Z. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 75 91 72 89 / 10 20 40 40 MLU 73 91 72 89 / 0 10 30 40 DEQ 67 86 61 84 / 10 40 50 30 TXK 73 91 67 86 / 10 30 60 30 ELD 71 89 66 86 / 10 20 60 30 TYR 74 89 70 86 / 10 30 30 40 GGG 74 89 70 87 / 10 30 30 40 LFK 73 90 73 91 / 0 20 10 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...15