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000
FXUS64 KSHV 221725
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

As of 10:15 AM today, temperatures are gradually rising into the
lower 60s. Later this afternoon, temperature maximums will
approach the low-to-mid 70s under sunny skies and light winds.
With weather and observed trends continuing as anticipated,
forecast grid adjustments were not necessary at this time. /16/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

High pressure is holding steady on the 1024mb contour so far with
still a light NW wind in E TX. Lots of calm sites in the
metroplex with a 1025mb core found there, that will be drifting
eastward across our Four-State area today. There is still a
little NE wind coming down the MS River with light E to SE winds
set for the day ahead. We will see a boat load of sunshine with
these cool readings this morning perhaps the last for a summer
season coming like a freight train off the Pacific we are still
calling El Nino.

Currently we have low to mid 40s for the coolest with a few sites
in the upper 40s or even low 50s here at SHV Regional. We will
bottom out soon in the 40s with area dew points all in the low to
mid 40s for most. The extremes are upper 30 Tds at Texarkana and
DeQueen, and 47 degrees the warmest in Lufkin. We may see some
patchy fog here and there in the coming hours as we approach
saturation. Already foggy in the central areas of LA where even
this low visibility will quickly clear with very dry air aloft
looking at the water vapor. The KSHV VAD wind profiler is showing
E/SE for the first 5-6kft. So another great day with a warming
trend ready to go with lower 70s for an average today despite the
chilly start. Lows will be warm slightly from here as the SE
winds later today start to bump the dew points back off the Gulf.
The HRRR shows the air mass easing across the MS River around
lunchtime today. Overnight temps will remain cool again tomorrow,
but ticking upwards from this morning`s effort.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

This local area of high pressure will continue eastward across
the SE U.S. with still a 1025mb core this time tomorrow in GA and
the Carolinas. The next area of high pressure will edge out of
Canada into the Great Lakes during midweek. The frontal boundary
of this drier air mass will park over SE OK and W AR and will
give rise to a chance for showers and thunderstorms for our I-30
corridor at that time. This boundary will hang around and wash out
as a upper ridging slides over TX.

The next big Pacific trough will be over S CA by early Thursday
and forms a lee side low over CO/KN and the panhandles by sunset.
This feature will be lifting the muggy Gulf air and the
unseasonably warm air to bring a better chance for rainfall to
more of our cwa, but still not much into the Parishes. A secondary
trough will push over N CA and NV which will keep the Canadian air
mass parked slowly edging eastward unable to pour southward.

So the rains for us will pick up again for us Monday into Tuesday
with the frontal push in our direction, but not moving this far
southward. It looks as though the storm track is starting to make
a move northward and away from our concerns for the rest of this
month and into May as well. The trends can be confirmed with
NOAA`s 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks with above average temps
continuing for weeks and average rainfall ticking upwards to above
average beyond the scope of this long term period. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR flight conditions should generally prevail at all TAF sites
for the next 24 hours. A few high cirrus clouds will stream
overhead, and some clouds closer to 5 kft may begin to affect
portions of East Texas late in the period. Otherwise, light winds
should continue to prevail at all terminals until Tuesday morning.
After 23/15z, south or southwest winds should increase to between
7 and 12 kts areawide with the terminals across East Texas
possibly experiencing a few gusts between 15 and 20 kts.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  49  79  62 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  70  45  77  57 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  71  44  78  57 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  72  49  78  61 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  71  42  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  72  52  77  62 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  72  50  77  60 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  74  49  79  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...09