000
FXUS64 KSHV 261931
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
231 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

A very complicated short-term is unfolding across the region,
including the threat of severe weather and flash flooding. After
reviewing the morning suite of 12z guidance, and collaborating
with the SPC, it was decided to upgrade the existing Slight Risk
into an Enhanced Risk. The biggest factor in this were some
remnant outflow boundaries that were expected to enhance
convection across the region under peak daytime heating. From
there, additional collaboration was done with the WPC regarding
QPF amounts for this afternoon, and into the overnight hours.
Overnight QPF amounts were underdone, given the fact that
afternoon convection is likely to train through the evening hours.
Total rainfall amounts were adjusted up the next 24-hours to
account for that. One thing to note regarding this, while we are
not anticipating widespread flooding or flash flooding with this
rain, it will greatly shrink the tolerance we have for the
additional rainfall through the weekend. In turn, depending on
rainfall amounts through tonight, a Flood Watch will likely be
considered as early as tomorrow for the extra rainfall anticipated
on Sunday.

The severe weather threat should diminish once the sun sets, with
rain chances beginning to pivot north. This will allow for a
portion of the region to dry out through the day on Saturday,
before the next round of weather moves in to the long-term.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Our next round of severe weather and heavy rainfall still looks to
be on track for Sunday morning, all the way through to Monday
morning. This mostly applies to the heavy rainfall, with the
severe weather window still appearing to be the evening and
overnight hours. The line overall will be very, very slow moving,
which allow for rainfall rates to be incredibly heavy at times. In
turn, some locations could pick up 2-4 inches of rainfall in that
24-hour window alone. In fact, while the severe weather threat
does exist, we are actually more worried about flash flooding
being the "main" threat with this line through Monday AM. However,
any storms that do become severe will be capable of producing
large hail and damaging winds.

I wish I could say that we will dry out from there, but it looks
like behind this disturbance the region will quickly slip back
into zonal flow, then SW flow aloft. In turn, the region should
remain in a disturbed pattern into next weekend, with daily rain
chances for the foreseeable future.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

For 26/18z TAFS...VFR conditions have finally moved into all TAF
sites. However, mostly cloudy skies remain across the region.
Also, convection has started developing across the area, north of
a line from Tyler Texas to Texarkana. Look for convection to
develop into a line and move southeastward across the region this
afternoon into the early evening hours. This will produced
widespread reduced flight categories. After Midnight, look for low
clouds to develop and move into the sites. Outside of KELD/KMLU,
expect VFR conditions to return by the end of the period.

/20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  88  71  86 /  30  20  10  50
MLU  69  87  67  87 /  20  10   0  20
DEQ  65  81  65  76 /  40  60  40  90
TXK  70  85  69  81 /  40  40  20  80
ELD  66  86  66  83 /  30  20  10  50
TYR  70  85  70  80 /  30  20  30  90
GGG  70  86  70  83 /  30  20  20  70
LFK  70  87  70  85 /  20  10  10  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...20