Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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598 FXUS64 KSJT 011842 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 142 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 122 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Late Thursday afternoon, a dryline will be situated across our central counties. Meanwhile a cold front will be across the Big Country and is forecast to slowly move south through the evening hours, then stall somewhere across our central or southern counties. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during the evening hours, ahead of the front and east of the dryline. Most of this activity should be confined to our eastern counties. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s across the Big Country, behind the weak cold front, and in the upper 80s to lower 90s elsewhere. Overall, drier conditions are forecast on Friday, although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible with the remnant cold front in the region. Saturday into Sunday, West Central Texas will be in the southwest flow aloft, with a weak remnant cold front in the region. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible both days, with the higher rain chances across the Big Country. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with any thunderstorms. Highs will be slightly cooler, generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Drier conditions are expected next week with much warmer temperatures. Highs by Tuesday will be in the low to mid 90s, with highs on Wednesday in the approaching the upper 90s in some locations. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Mainly looking at VFR ceilings around 5K feet this afternoon, with south to southeast winds gusting 20 to 25 knots. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the dryline to our west late this afternoon and move east across the terminals through the evening hours. Some of the storms may become strong to severe, with damaging winds and hail the main hazards. Will maintain TEMPO groups at the terminals for convection based on latest high resolution model data. Convection will end from west to east between 05Z-07Z. Expect MVFR ceilings to develop across the terminals late tonight into Thursday morning, with some possible IFR ceilings across the southern terminals after 10Z. For now, will keep ceilings MVFR due to lower confidence in IFR conditions && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 64 90 62 86 / 70 10 20 30 San Angelo 64 94 65 91 / 80 10 0 30 Junction 66 90 69 92 / 70 10 10 30 Brownwood 65 86 66 85 / 90 20 20 20 Sweetwater 64 90 62 86 / 100 10 10 30 Ozona 66 92 65 89 / 40 10 0 30 Brady 66 87 67 86 / 80 10 10 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...24