Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

000
FXUS01 KWBC 241959
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Valid 00Z Thu Apr 25 2024 - 00Z Sat Apr 27 2024

...Unsettled weather and severe thunderstorm chances will continue
to expand across much of the central United States over the next
several days...

...Active fire weather pattern to emerge over the southern High
Plains on Thursday...

...Above average temperatures shift from the Great Basin to the
Plains, while the West and East remain cool through the end of the
week...

An increasingly active weather pattern is beginning to unfold
across the mid-section of the country as an upper-level trough
from the subtropical eastern Pacific continues to head toward Baja
California and the Southwest.  This trough is expected to interact
with warm and moist air returning from the Gulf of Mexico and
produce an expanding area of showers and thunderstorms gradually
lifting northward of a warm front.  The initial stages of
rain/thunderstorm formation are setting up across Oklahoma into
western Kansas this afternoon.  Combined with a southern High
Plains dryline, a few developing thunderstorms could turn severe
tonight from West Texas to central Oklahoma, in addition to the
chances for isolated flash flooding. A greater severe weather
threat is expected to expand across the central Plains on Thursday
as a surface cyclone rapidly deepens in response to the
approaching upper level trough. The aforementioned warm front is
expected to continue lifting northward while the High Plains
dryline pushes east. This environment is anticipated to produce
numerous thunderstorms across the central and southern Plains,
with scattered storms turning severe. The Storm Prediction Center
has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe weather across
parts of southwest/south-central Kansas and western Oklahoma into
the eastern Texas Panhandle. Very large hail, severe wind gusts,
and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible. Multiple
rounds of heavy rain could also lead to scattered flash flooding,
which has prompted a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall
across parts of northeast Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, western
Missouri, and northwest Arkansas. By Friday, the low pressure
system is forecast to deepen and slide east across the central
Plains while shower and thunderstorm chances also push eastward
into the upper Midwest, mid- and lower Mississippi Valley, as well
as the southern Plains.  Gusty winds will also expand across the
central U.S. as the low pressure system intensifies.

Behind the dryline across the southern High Plains, the
combination of very low relative humidity and gusty winds are
expected to raise fire danger to critical level on Thursday and
Friday. Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. Outdoor
burning is not recommended. Additionally, gusty winds up to 55 mph
could lead to areas of blowing dust.

Elsewhere, precipitation chances will be found across the
Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic into this evening with the passage
of a pair of cold fronts. Colder air behind the fronts could
change the rain to a period of wet snow or snow showers across
northern New England before ending this evening.  Meanwhile,
unsettled weather is expected to persist over the West, Great
Basin, and Rockies over the next few days with the passage of the
upper trough. Most precipiation is expected to remain mostly
light, with embedded downpours and high-elevation heavy snow by
Friday across the Rockies. This active weather will also accompany
with a cooling trend throughout the West in contrast to the spring
warmth recently across the region. Chilly weather is also forecast
across the Northeast through the end of the week as high pressure
builds southward from Canada. Low temperatures could dip below
freezing on Thursday morning and have prompted Freeze Watches to
be issued from the lower Great Lakes to southern New England. Most
of the above average warmth will be found throughout the Plains
outside of areas experiencing prolonged periods of rainfall, with
highs into the 80s remaining across the Southern Tier States into
Friday.

The Pacific Northwest should be the wettest region across the West
through the next couple of days as a Pacific low pressure system
moves onshore.  The Coastal Ranges as well as the Cascades could
receive a couple of inches of rainfall with heavy wet snow
possible across the higher elevations.

Kong/Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$