Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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835 FXUS62 KTBW 031819 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 217 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Broad upper ridging extends northeastward along the eastern seaboard through the end of the week. By Saturday, the upper ridge moves near the Bahamas while weak troughing moves through the southeast U.S. This will be short-lived as the ridge builds back in over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida by Monday and continues through most of next week. On the surface, high pressure off the Carolina coastline ridges westward over Florida and will dominate the weather pattern for today. There will be some minor north/south movements of the ridge axis during the forecast period as an area of low pressure and weak front moves north of the area over the weekend, but overall this ridge of high pressure will be the dominant weather feature through the period. Rain chances will remain on the low side (20-40 percent) through the period, with the highest chances on Saturday and Sunday during the afternoon and evening hours. Above average temperatures are expected to continue with daytime highs topping out in the mid 80`s along the coast to low 90`s over the interior through the first of next week. Overnight lows will dip only into the mid 60`s to around 70. A further warm up is expected by the middle of next week with mid to upper 90`s possible over the interior. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 217 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Prevailing VFR conditions with winds less than 12 knots expected through the forecast period. Rain and storm chances remain on the low side, so will not include any mention of SHRA or TSRA at any of the terminals at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 217 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 High pressure off the Carolina coastline ridges across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico and remains in control over the gulf waters through the period. Mostly rain free conditions are anticipated with winds remaining 15 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less making for pleasant boating conditions through the weekend. A sea breeze is expected close to the coast each afternoon and evening. A weak front will move north of the area during the weekend, but highest chances of rain are expected to be over land. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 217 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 High pressure builds in over the area and will dominate the weather through the period. Slightly drier air will keep low rain chances over the area today. Minimum humidities could drop near critical levels, especially in central portions of the Peninsula, but low winds will preclude the need for any Red Flag Warnings. Easterly winds prevail becoming onshore by the afternoon through before shifting from the south during the weekend. Then, a weak front moves north of the area bringing increasing moisture over the weekend and along with it chances of rain, with the highest rain chances on Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 72 90 73 89 / 0 20 20 30 FMY 70 90 70 90 / 10 40 20 40 GIF 67 91 69 90 / 0 30 20 40 SRQ 70 90 71 90 / 10 20 20 20 BKV 64 91 66 90 / 0 20 10 30 SPG 74 87 75 88 / 0 20 20 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard